两类El Nino事件对华南地区台风登陆的影响及其预测系统

Numerical simulations have proven that more Central Pacific(CP)El Ni?o events tend to occur under the changing climate.However,the influences of CP El Ni?o on typhoon landfall over South China, as well as the different modulations of two types of El Ni?o on typhoon landfall(e.g.,landfall frequency,tracks) remain unclear.Data mining methods are employed to analyze the linkage between the variabitity of typhoon landfall in South China and two types of El Ni?o.The tasks are summarized as follows:..(1)to unravel the characteristics of typhoon landfall over South China and their relations to two tpyes of El Ni?o..(2)to construct a mathematical model for the linkage between typhoon landfall over South China and two types of El Ni?o.This model is used to predict typhoon landfall in South China..(3)to develop a prediction system for typhoon landfall over South China. ..The current research is expected to advance our understanding of the modulation of two types of El Ni?o on large-scale circulation;to gain more insight into the impacts of CP El Ni?o on typhoon landfall over South China.Our research outputs will provide valuable references and operational tools for the medium-or long-term prediction of typhoon landfall over South China.

在气候变化的背景之下，数值模拟证明Central Pacific (CP) El Ni?o将会发生得更频繁。然而，CP El Ni?o对华南地区台风登陆(如登陆频数、路径)的影响，以及与Eastern Pacific (EP) El Ni?o影响的差别尚不清楚。本研究拟采用数据挖掘方法，分析两种El Ni?o与华南地区台风登陆之间的关系。本项目拟研究：1.找出登陆华南台风路径的特征以及其与两种El Ni?o 的关系；2）构建登陆华南台风与两类El Ni?o 之间关系的数学模型，以用于华南台风登陆的预测；3）开发华南台风登陆的预测系统。本研究将加深气候变化背景下两类El Ni?o 对大尺度环流影响的理解；进一步探清CP El Ni?o 与华南台风登陆之间的关系；本研究的研究成果将为华南地区台风登陆的中长期预报提供参考依据及业务工具。

本研究分析了两类El Nino事件与台风登陆，强度，强台风频数，起源的关系。研究过程中取得的进展主要包括：.1. 探清两类El Nino事件与登陆我国以及东亚地区的台风之间的关系和特征。.2. 利用有限混合模型聚类模型以及Expectation-Maximum (EM)算法，发现登陆我国的台风路径尤其在华南地区的分布特征，以及每类登陆台风路径与大尺度环流的关系。.3. 研究发现西北太平洋台风的频数与北太平洋海温模态之间的关系。.4. 研究表明两种El Nino事件与强台风的关系。结果显示在中太平洋El Nino年，强台风较多。.5. 根据数据挖掘算法找出的规律，本研究构建了针对台风强度与起源的预测模型。