基于空间安全诊断的农村城镇化与乡镇产业用地布局规划研究

The township is the main gathering place for the development of rural industries, Industries at town-scale are the leading force and inner motivation for rural urbanization. At present, how to ease the conflict between industrial development and the security in land use. how to guide the industries at town-scale to a better distribution and intensive development correctly is particularly important for rural urbanization. By applying several methods, such as data analysis, field survey, spatial analysis, statistical analysis,etc, taking the town-scale as research scale and the industiral land at town-scale as mainline,this project focuses on: ① Carrying out the research of coupling relationship between rural urbanization and industrialization, explain how the development of rural urbanization impact the rural urbanization systematic. ② Screening the key driving factor to reveal the dynamic evolution of industrial land layout at town-scale. ③ Establishing a system for the research of industrial land layout planning at town-scale based on spatial security evaluation and applying to Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei province, so that achieving the evaluation of safety space and the space simulation of the industrial land layout at town-scale. This study, improves the scientificalness of the industry land layout planning at town-scale in theory, enriches the theory system and method system for studying rural urbanization and new village construction, meanwhile, it also provide scientific guidance and technical basis for the decisions of China's industrial land layout at town-scale and the sustainable development of social, economic and environment in rural areas.

乡镇是我国农村产业发展的主要集聚地，乡镇产业是推动农村城镇化建设的主导力量和内在动力。当前，如何缓解产业发展与土地利用安全间矛盾，正确引导乡镇产业合理布局和集约发展，对于我国农村城镇化建设尤为重要。本项目综合运用资料分析、实地调研、空间分析、统计分析等方法，以乡镇为研究尺度，以乡镇产业用地为研究主线，①开展农村城镇化与产业化之间的耦合关系研究，系统阐释产业发展对农村城镇化的作用和影响；②筛选关键驱动因子，揭示乡镇产业用地布局的动态演化机制；③建立基于空间安全诊断的乡镇产业用地布局规划研究的方法体系，并应用于京津冀地区，实现对乡镇产业用地布局的空间安全评价和空间模拟。本研究不仅从理论上提升乡镇产业用地规划的科学性，丰富了我国"农村城镇化建设和新农村改革"的政策研究的理论体系和方法体系，而且可为我国乡镇产业用地布局决策以及带动农村地区的社会、经济和环境可持续发展提供科学引导和技术依据。

产业用地空间安全诊断是探索城镇化与工业化进程中，产业用地与其他用地之间互动变化和相互作用的工具。是从生产、生活和生态三生空间入手，确保工业生产用地空间安全的同时，也能确保其周边生活用地和生态用地的空间安全，最终实现生态-社会-经济系统的协调发展。因此，研究产业用地空间安全是具有一定的理论前沿性，具有优化我国小城镇产城融合发展的实际需求。理论层面，本项目对产业用地时空演化规律进行分析，分析了产业用地布局实现了从分散到围绕中心城区集聚，再到退二进三、集中入园的过程演化趋势，探讨了乡镇尺度产业用地经历了二次工业化的阶段、特点，重点针对二次工业化和城镇化的阶段特点分析了产城融合对于产业用地的影响。在此基础上，本项目初步形成了“红线控制初筛-单因子评价-空间综合评价”乡镇产业用地空间安全诊断的理论分析框架，构建了基于“园区-公民-社会”Agent的产城融合导向下城镇建设用地扩展模拟方法。实证层面，本项目结合京津冀一体化发展战略，选取作为北京产业重要承接区和产业结构转型区的天津市为研究区域，选取除滨海新区外的9区142乡镇为案例开展1990-2014的25年间产业用地时空数据，从城镇化、工业化和经济发展水平三个纬度，探讨了各乡镇城镇化与工业化耦合关系，验证了天津市产业化与城镇化互为因果的发展关系，确定了9区142个乡镇产业化与城镇化发展阶段和阶段特点，划分了产业用地安全等级和基于承载能力的产业用地可拓展规模，提出未来天津市9区142个乡镇未来产业用地安全格局优化策略，为京津冀产城融合发展提供必要的实现路径依据。