“人—地”城镇化协调与生态安全约束的江苏省典型区镇村建设用地适宜布局研究

Research on land use change and urbanization and ecological security is currently a hot topic in geography and land change science.With the accelerating pace of urbanization,land urbanization is generally faster than population urbanization,which is reflected in the irrational use of land, resulting in a certain degree of land degradation and endangering regional ecological security.This project takes the Jiangsu Province，one of the country's new comprehensive pilot cities for urbanization,and its typical district,as the research area.It analyzed the evolution pattern of the township and village construction land and the “Population-Land”urbanization.and its driving mechanism in Jiangsu Province in the past 30 years,revealing the constraint mechanism of “Population-Land” urbanization and ecological security on township and village construction land pattern, constructing a suitable evaluation system for the pattern of township and village land under the constraints of “Population-Land” urbanization coordination and ecological security, using K-order model, field energy model and spatial equilibrium model to evaluate suitability of township and village pattern.Finally, on the basis of determining the reasonable pattern criteria, according to the evaluation results of pattern suitability, the township and village spatial structure system with spatial equilibrium is constructed on the macro scale, and the land adjustment scheme based on the two-step mobile algorithm is proposed on the micro scale.The implementation of this project would enrich land change science research fruits, offering useful suggestions for the development of land resources, ecological protection of environment,new-type urbanization,rural revitalization,urban and rural coordination and regional sustainable development in Jiangsu province,providing policy references for the rational use of land resources in China's rapid urbanization area.

开展土地利用变化与城镇化、生态安全研究是当前地理学、土地变化科学的热点方向。随着城镇化步伐加快，土地城镇化普遍快于人口城镇化，表现为土地不合理利用，导致一定程度的土地退化，危及区域生态安全。本项目以江苏省及其典型区为研究区，分析近30年来江苏省镇村建设用地及“人—地”城镇化演变格局及其驱动机制，揭示“人—地”城镇化与生态安全对镇村建设用地布局的约束机理，构建协同约束条件下的镇村用地布局适宜性评价体系，采用发展K阶模型、场能模型、空间均衡模型进行镇村布局适宜性评价。最后，在确定合理布局标准基础上，依据布局适宜性评价结果，在宏观尺度上构建空间均衡下的镇村空间结构体系，在微观尺度上提出基于两步移动算法的地块调整方案，并据此进行适宜布局模拟。本项目的实施，既能丰富土地变化科学的研究成果，也能为江苏省土地资源开发与生态环境保护提供有益建议，为我国经济快速发展区土地资源合理利用提供政策参考。

随着城镇化步伐加快，土地城镇化普遍快于人口城镇化，表现为土地不合理利用，导致一定程度的土地退化，危及区域生态安全。研究土地利用变化与城镇化、生态安全之间的关系机理，是土地资源持续高效利用和实现耕地资源保护的关键。对此，本研究基于产业集群理论和级差地租理论构建了城镇化与土地利用关系分析模型，并进行多尺度村镇建设用地空间分布影响因素分析；分析“显性”与“隐性”城市网络之间的空间联系，提出城市空间网络优化方案；分析长时间序列数据时间尺度效应，进行数据时间尺度重构，以提高预测模型精度；构建“自上而下”与“自下而上”相结合的土地利用模拟模型实现了目标导向的土地利用变化模拟。本项目研究成果主要包括：1）创建的城镇化与城市土地利用关系分析框架，拓展了城镇化与土地利用研究体系架构的内涵；2）基于时间尺度重构的预测模型，总体精度提高了4%；3）基于“空间正义”的城乡空间优化方案，更有利于区域协同统筹发展；4）基于目标导向土地利用模拟构建的土地利用管控分区模型，促进了差别化土地利用管控策略的提出。以上部分研究成果已应用于南京市国土空间总体规划编制项目专题研究中，助力差别化国土管理政策的制定。