北京市PM2.5污染对老年人群健康效应影响及医疗服务需求研究

Currently, air quality has significantly improved in Beijing. However, pollution problem still exists. Air pollution, especially PM2.5 pollution, is one of the major hazards to health. The aged are more vulnerable to air pollution because of their weaker body function. Since the current health care industry is still underdeveloped and medical facilities are not sufficient, it has important practical significance to study on the impacts on the health effect economic loss of the aged from air pollution and predict the medical service needs for the aged, which is not only for Beijing which ranks in the second in China for the severity of its aging, but also for other serious aging cities. Firstly, based on the baseline scenario, emission reduction scenario, enhanced emission reduction scenario and Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ), this study simulates PM2.5 concentration in Beijing in the future years. Secondly, the health effect economic loss of the aged caused by PM2.5 is calculated based on the Poisson Regression model. Lastly, utilizing multivariate Logistic Regression model and input-output model, medical service needs for the aged and the impact of medical service needs change on the national economy and other sectors are predicted. This study can provide reference for reducing the health effect economic loss of the aged caused by air pollution and exploring the medical service needs for the aged, the future development of the health care industry for Beijing.

目前，北京市大气质量显著改善，但污染问题仍然存在。大气污染尤其PM2.5污染是影响健康的主要危害之一，老年人群由于身体机能降低，受大气污染的影响更大。在目前医疗服务业尚不发达、医疗设施并不充足的情况下，深入研究大气污染对北京老年人群健康效应经济损失的影响，预测老年人群对医疗服务的需求，不仅对老龄化严重程度居全国第二的北京具有重要现实意义，而且对其他老龄化严重城市也有参考价值。首先，基于设定的基准情景、减排情景和强化减排情景，利用空气质量模型模拟北京市未来年份PM2.5浓度；其次，基于泊松回归模型核算PM2.5引起的老年人群健康效应经济损失；最后，采用多元logistic回归模型和投入产出模型，预测老年人群对医疗服务的需求以及医疗服务需求变动对国民经济和其他行业的影响。本研究为未来北京降低大气污染及老年人群健康效应经济损失、探讨老年人群对医疗服务的需求以及未来医疗卫生业的发展提供参考。

大气污染尤其PM2.5污染是影响健康的主要危害之一，老年人群由于身体机能降低，受大气污染的影响更大。深入研究大气污染对老年人群健康效应经济损失的影响，不仅对老龄化严重程度的北京具有重要现实意义，而且对其他老龄化严重城市也有参考价值。本报告首先对PM2.5的影响因素进行分析。通过运用面板完全修正最小二乘法、动态最小二乘法、构建资源-环境-经济系统，分析了城市化和煤炭消费对PM2.5污染的影响；其次，对PM2.5驱动因素的时空差异进行分析。通过使用地理和时间加权回归模型，探索了2015—2018年间黄河中游城市群的社会经济因素以及时空异质性；最后，分区域研究了PM2.5所造成的健康效应经济损失的区域异质性。通过利用暴露-反应关系模型、修正人力资本法、疾病成本法和支付意愿法分别对北京市、中原城市群、汾渭平原的健康效应经济损失以及医疗服务需求进行了分析。此研究为未来降低大气污染及老年人群健康效应经济损失提供了参考。研究成果在国内外权威期刊上发表有关相关论文8篇，其中在JCR一区资源环境管理类期刊发表论文5篇。参加国内外学术会议12次，培养9名本硕博学生。