面向省级电网的风光水多能互补调度问题研究

The coordinated operation problems of hybrid wind-photovoltaic-hydro Energy systems are very complex. They are greatly not only depended on the understanding of aggregated rules and multi-voltage level section obstruction characteristics of wind and photovoltaic power, but also directly controlled by the limit of the export sections in converter stations, as well as needed to effectively coordinate among multi-level departments, including national, regional, provincial power grids and basin dispatching center, and to deal with multi-objective and multi-stakeholder contradictions such as energy absorption, flood control, ecological environment, navigation and so on. Therefore, on the background of Yunnan Power Grid which is one of the most representative in China, the several key issues related with the multi-energy complementary operations will be addressed: 1) power aggregated characteristics of wind and photovoltaic power with much uncertainty and high permeability; 2) methods to enhance the flexibility for multi-energy complementary system; 3) comprehensive utilization optimization scheduling rules of zoning coordination under complex conditions with multiple uncertainties; and 4) timing progressive optimization strategy for multi-energy complementary operation. The final goals of the study are obtained the optimization operation methodologies with the features of hierarchical control, zoning coordination and timing progressive for multi-energy complementary system in Yunnan Power Grid. Furthermore, the strategic and theoretical support for multi-energy complementary operation with different penetration levels and market conditions in the future are also given out. The study will significantly promote the utilization efficiency of clean energies and supply the decision support of the planning, as well as also innovate new ways and methods for multi-energy complementary operation.

风光水多能互补运行方式极大地依赖于对风、光新能源聚合规律及其逐级并网断面受阻特性的掌握，受控于各联络线出口断面限制，需要综合考虑消纳、调峰、防洪、生态环境、通航等多目标、多利益主体矛盾，有效协调国家-区域-省级（电网）-流域多层级复杂调度关系，实现清洁能源有效消纳。为此，以极具代表性之一的云南电网为背景，拟开展风光不确定性电源聚合规律、多能互补灵活性提升能力方法、多重不确定性复杂条件下的多能互补分区协调综合利用优化调度方法和多能互补时序递进优化方法等问题研究。通过上述问题研究，拟构建分层控制、分区协调、时序递进的多能互补优化运行的方法体系，为云南电网未来不同渗透率水平新能源并网和多能互补优化运行提供切实可行的运行方式、策略和理论方法支持，促进清洁能源有序、有计划地大规模高效综合利用，创新多能互补利用新途径、新方法。

近年来，我国以风电和光伏电为代表的新能源大规模并网发电，截止2022年年底，风电和光伏电装机容量分别为3.65亿千瓦和3.93亿千瓦，同比增长11.2%和28.1%，逐步成为电网主导电源。然而，风光电源具有随机性、波动性和间歇性特征，导致清洁能源消纳、多能源协调调度等问题日益凸显。本项目以极具代表性之一的云南电网为依托工程背景，围绕风光电源与水电互补调度为主线，系统开展了风光电源功率预测、多能源互补调度、水电灵活性量化提升等省级电网风光水多能互补调度关键问题的研究工作，提出了风光不确定性电源聚合及发电能力预测方法，水电灵活性供给能力和需求响应能力量化及提升方法，构建了光伏电与不同调节性能水电站互补评价分析模型，以及考虑出力不确定性和难预测性的风光水多能源互补调度模型。此外，开展了水电企业当前面临亟待解决的市场化调度相关问题的研究工作，提出了多尺度市场环境下梯级水电站调度及竞价风险分析方法。研究成果均通过实际数据进行验证，部分成果已应用于实际生产调度决策与计划编制，为云南电网风光水多能源互补调度、促进清洁能源有序高效利用提供了理论和技术支持。