个人交通碳交易体系中考虑居民偏好异质性的碳配额定价及低碳行为研究

In the context of global carbon emission, the carbon emissions from residential transportation have exhibited a contrary growth. Effectively controlling and reducing the carbon emissions in transportation sector, will be of great significance to obtain governments’ carbon emission reduction targets. In this regards, the existing researches proposed that introducing market-oriented personal transportation carbon trading into residential transportation sector will efficiently encourage residents’ low-carbon behaviors. In most existing studies, residents are assumed to be homogeneous individuals. However, in reality, there is significant heterogeneity among residents, such as environmental preferences. Neglecting residents’ preference heterogeneity may lead to analysis results and implementation plan deviated from reality, distorted carbon allowance price and even market failure. Based on this practical problem, this project investigates the carbon allowance pricing and its effects on low-carbon behavior within personal carbon trading system in transportation sector with consideration of residents’ preference heterogeneity. The main research contents of the project include:(1) Study on residents’ critical preference heterogeneity in personal transportation carbon trading system; (2) Construction and analysis of carbon allowance pricing model with consideration of residents’ preference heterogeneity; (3) Study on the effects of carbon allowance pricing on residents’ low-carbon behavior with consideration of residents’ preference heterogeneity and (4) The application of theoretical achievements in practice. The project intends to further enrich the theories and methods of carbon trading mechanism and provides reference for government to make beneficial decisions on emission control.

在全球碳减排背景下，居民交通出行领域碳排放却呈现出逆势增长现象。有效控制并降低交通领域碳排放，对政府碳减排目标的实现，具有重要意义。研究表明运用市场化手段，通过实施个人交通碳交易能够有效引导居民低碳出行行为。现有研究多假定居民为同质化的行为个体，但在现实情境中，居民之间在环保偏好、时间成本偏好等方面会存在显著异质性，忽视居民偏好异质性，可能会使得分析结果及方案实施偏离实际，导致碳配额价格扭曲，甚至市场失灵。本课题基于这一现实问题，在个人交通碳交易体系中考虑居民偏好异质性，研究碳配额定价及低碳出行行为问题。研究内容包括：（1）个人交通碳交易体系中居民关键偏好异质性研究；（2）考虑居民偏好异质性的碳配额定价模型构建与分析；（3）考虑居民偏好异质性的碳配额价格对低碳行为的影响机理研究；和（4）理论成果在实践中的应用。本项目研究将进一步丰富碳交易理论与方法，为政府针对消费层面排放治理提供有益决策参

消费已经成为我国经济增长的第一引擎，当前消费领域的碳排放问题已经不容忽视。未来，受城镇化持续推进、收入水平的提高、经济的增长等因素的推动，潜在的消费潜力将会进一步得到释放，由此会带来消费领域的直接碳排放和间接碳排放的快速增长。忽视消费领域的绿色努力，将会对上游生产领域的碳减排努力产生冲减抵消效应。纵观当前，针对下游消费者的绿色低碳政策，多为软性约束，软约束容易造成消费者知行分离，有必要针对下游消费者领域建立碳交易市场机制，引导消费者进行碳减排努力，助力碳达峰碳中和目标的实现。本项目围绕居民交通出行领域碳减排工作，引入个人交通碳交易体系，考虑了居民偏好异质性情况下，碳配额的价格形成机理以及价格信号对居民低碳行为的影响效应。.研究发现：（1）个人交通碳交易体系的引入在整体上能够有效的引导消费者进行低碳减排实践，但是不同群体间减排实践有所区别；（2）个人交通碳交易市场中碳配额价格形成受到初始配额、能源价格、能源碳排放率等关键因素影响；（3）个人碳交易体系下居民是否选择消费绿色能源存在碳配额价格阈值点，在不同群体间存在差异性；（4）个体交通碳交易下居民异质性如收入异质性、环境偏好异质性对绿色交通工具选择如电动车采纳的影响具有条件性（5）居民心理情境因素对于居民异质性偏好刻画具有重要作用。.本项目研究具有重要的理论和实践意义。在理论上，丰富了外部性理论、碳交易理论，拓展了碳交易理论在下游消费领域的应用。在实践上，有助于政府完善消费领域低碳减排引导，为政策制定提供借鉴参考，并为未来政府尝试设计实施消费领域减排交易市场机制提供决策参考。在本项目的资助下，申请人及课题组成员在Transportation Research Part A:Policy and Practice、Journal of Cleaner Production、Environmental Geochemistry and Health、Journal of sustainable Tourism、International Journal of Production Research、Business Strategy and the Environment等期刊上发表论文13篇，其中SCI/SSCI检索期刊12篇，CSCD检索1篇。.