中国碳排放配额交易对碳减排的影响机制建模及优化策略研究

Carbon emission quota trading proves an important institutional innovation for achieving carbon emission control goal using the market mechanism in a cost-effective way. Now China is about to launch the national carbon trading scheme based on the pilots, however, there exists many special features in China to establish the national scheme, including the large difference in economic level among regions and industries, weak low-carbon awareness in the society, unsatisfactory carbon emission data in the enterprises and lack of relevant law. Therefore, how to elucidate the key impact of carbon trading scheme and shape the relevant law proves the major demand and urgent tasks for the nation, and exploring the impact mechanisms of carbon trading on carbon emission reduction should be the essential basis for the top-level design of carbon trading institutions and the laws. Under this circumstance, this project employs some interdisciplinary methods (such as energy and environmental economics, econometrics and mathematical programming), from multiple levels including the whole country, regions, emission trading scheme (ETS) covered industries and enterprises and the essential aim of carbon trading, to investigate how China’s carbon trading scheme may enhance carbon emission reduction performance, lower carbon emission reduction costs, and promote low-carbon technology investment and progress. The research in this project may help to provide decision-making support for the carbon trading regulators to optimize carbon trading mechanism design and for the ETS-covered enterprises to shape appropriate investment strategies regarding low-carbon technologies.

碳排放配额交易是运用市场机制以较低成本实现控制碳排放目标的重要制度创新。我国即将在碳交易试点基础上推出全国碳交易体系，但是，我国经济发展在地区和行业之间差异大、社会低碳意识薄弱、企业碳排放数据基础差、缺乏相关立法等问题构成了建立全国碳交易体系的特殊国情。如何研究明确全国碳交易的关键影响并制定法律法规，是国家的重大需求和紧迫任务，而探索碳交易对碳减排的影响机制是开展碳交易制度顶层设计、制定相关法规的重要基础。为此，本项目利用能源环境经济学、计量经济学、数学规划等多学科的理论方法，从全社会、各地区、重点控排行业和控排企业等多个层面，基于碳交易的本质目的，探讨我国碳交易体系将如何提升碳减排绩效，如何降低碳减排成本，以及如何推动低碳技术投资和低碳技术进步。项目研究工作将有助于为碳交易主管部门优化碳交易机制设计以及控排企业制定合理的低碳技术投资策略提供决策参考。

本项目利用能源环境经济学、计量经济学、数学规划、微观博弈等跨学科理论方法，从全社会、各地区、重点控排行业和控排企业等多个层面，基于碳交易的本质目的，探讨我国碳交易体系将如何提升碳减排绩效，如何降低碳减排成本，以及如何推动低碳技术投资和低碳技术进步。项目负责人张跃军教授以第一或通讯作者在Environmental Science & Technology、Energy Economics等国际顶级或权威期刊发表与项目研究内容密切相关的论文20篇，以独立作者在科学出版社出版专著2部，主笔资政报告获得中共中央政治局常委韩正副总理等国家领导人批示3份，教育部自然科学奖二等奖1项，教育部人文社科奖二等奖1项，获聘教育部长江学者特聘教授。连续三年上榜科睿唯安“全球高被引科学家”和爱思唯尔“中国高被引学者”。广泛开展国内外专家高水平学术交流，国际合作取得实质性进展。