个人碳交易制度对消费者低碳行为的影响机制：理论建模与实验研究

Personal Carbon Trading（PCT）is an extension of "Cap and Trade" mechanism to end consumers. The most significant characteristic of PCT is that it would influence consumer behaviors directly. The Western pundits have begun to conduct exploratory theoretical research on PCT from the mid-1990s, but so far, as far as we know, the domestic research in this field is not enough. We have laid some research foundation on the theoretical modeling and experimental study of PCT. However, there are still some critical issues to be solved, such as how the PCT scheme would influence consumer behaviors. In view of this, firstly, we will establish a "carbon constraint-pricing- and behavioral response" model based on the theory of environmental behavior, to reveal the path of the impact of PCT on consumer behavior. Furthermore, we will establish PCT models based on nonlinear complementarity method, to investigate the influence of economic factors on low-carbon behavior in PCT. Based on the theoretical modeling, we will develop a PCT analog system and conduct human- machine interaction experiments to study the impact of environmental psychological factors on low-carbon behavior in PCT. Finally, based on the results of above study, we can derive the revelation of PCT on the policy making of energy-saving subsidies for consumers in China.

个人碳交易（Personal Carbon Trading,PCT）是"总量管制与交易"机制向终端消费者的延伸。与生产者碳交易相比，PCT最显著的特征是该减排制度会直接影响消费者的行为。关于PCT，国外已经开始了探索性研究，但据我们所知，目前国内此领域的研究几乎还是空白。就研究基础而言，本项目组在PCT的理论建模与实验研究方面已积累了一些研究基础，但仍有一些关键性问题尚待解决，如PCT如何影响消费者的低碳行为。鉴于此，首先基于环境行为理论，构建"碳约束-定价-行为反应"模型，揭示PCT对消费者行为的影响路径。在此基础上，基于非线性互补方法，构建个人碳交易数理模型，研究PCT中的经济因素对消费者低碳行为的影响；基于理论建模，设计开发个人碳交易模拟系统，进行人机模拟实验，研究PCT中的环境心理因素对消费者低碳行为的影响。最后，基于上述研究结果，研究PCT对我国消费者节能补贴政策制定的启示。

本项目基于个人碳交易理论，建立了个人碳交易机制下的消费者效用最大化模型；得出了不同消费群体对于碳交易机制，均衡碳价的敏感程度；为了应对不同的消费群体，提出并验证了分层定价的可行性。同时，项目还考虑了在碳交易市场波动的情况下消费者的低碳消费行为。本项目验证了个人碳交易对低碳行为的意义，也对中国未来燃油价格改革提出相应的政策建议。在本项目资助下，在Energy、Applied Energy、Energy Policy 等杂志发表SCI、SSCI期刊论文14篇，完成各项研究目标。