城市生活源固废废物流模拟及其资源环境响应研究

Municipal living waste (MLW), which is very close to people's daily life, is also a environmental issue that is most closely to human life. At present, settings for MLW treatment and disposal system are mostly rely on the subjective judgment of decision makers and the simple prediction of waste flow output, which consequently, is in lack of analysis on the sources, sinks, and paths for the waste flow and its resource-environmental responses. As a result, the settings for MLW treatment and disposal system are often inconsistent with the resource conservation and emission reduction targets. Using Geography Information System (GIS) and the System Dynamics (SD) to establish a dynamic simulation model, which can simulate the waste flow and its resource-environmental responses for MLW, is the key to solve the above problem. This theme simulated the output and direction of the MLW waste flow and its resources-environmental responses by determining and adjusting the various parameters of the system dynamics equations, and calculated and compared different waste flow scenarios and different amount of resource consumption, pollutant emissions according to different settings of MLW treatment and disposal system, so that a preferred analytical framework for efficient MLW treatment system will be provided. In addition, this theme also used the constructed model to do some empirical study, choosing food waste (which has a great impact on source consumption and environmental pollution) and used PET bottle (which is in great potential for recycling) as study cases.

城市生活源固废最贴近人们的日常生活，是与人类生活最息息相关的环境问题。目前我国对城市生活源固废处理处置系统的设置多依赖于决策者的定性判断和对废物流总流量的简单预测，缺乏对不同处理处置系统下废物流的源、汇、流动路径及其资源环境影响的分析，废弃物处理处置系统的设置往往与资源保护、污染物减排目标不相符合。采用地理信息系统（GIS）与系统动力学方法，构建城市生活源固废废物流模拟及其资源环境响应的系统动力学动态仿真模型，是解决这一问题的关键。本项目通过调整和确定系统动力学方程的各个参数，仿真城市生活源固废废物流的流量、流向及其资源消耗、污染物排放情况，计算和比较在不同城市生活源固废处理处置系统设置下的废物流情景及其资源环境响应，为构建城市生活源固废处理处置优选分析框架提供科学依据。同时，课题应用构建的动态仿真模型，选择对资源环境影响较大的餐厨垃圾以及资源化利用潜力较大的废饮料瓶为例，开展相应研究。

城市生活源固废最贴近人们的日常生活，是与人类生活最息息相关的环境问题。目前我国城市生活源固废回收利用整体水平较低，对城市生活源固废产生、排放、利用等一系列基本过程缺乏动态模拟，对城市生活源固废产生量等缺少统计。本项目构建了城市生活源固废的系统动力学模型，对北京市废PET饮料瓶的回收利用情况进行研究，对苏州市餐厨垃圾的回收利用情况进行了研究。结果发现，北京市2012年的废PET瓶消费量约为100,000吨，几乎所有的废PET瓶都被回收了，其中90%是由非正规的回收者回收的。对改进废PET回收系统最有效的几种方法依次是：布置废PET瓶自动回收机，提高公众环境保护的意识、政府制定废PET回收的详细规定。尽管消费者表现出了比较强的废PET回收的意愿，但是回收的不便利性、经济激励与惩罚措施的缺乏，都使得消费者的回收行为大大减少。北京应在给与回收行为更多便利性与更多经济激励上多做努力。苏州市2010-2015年间，正规回收利用的泔脚量增加了454%，正规回收利用的地沟油量增加了82%，预计2020年苏州市正规回收处理的泔脚量将达到17万吨，地沟油将达到7000吨。2015年苏州市餐厨垃圾产生的再生资源量为3.2万吨，2020年预计再生资源的量将达到4.3万吨。2015年，苏州市餐厨垃圾回收利用最终产生的固体废弃物量为22779吨，预计2020年餐厨垃圾回收利用产生的最终固体废弃物的量将达到29788吨。