决策参考点形成机理及其对销售、竞争和协调策略影响研究

Decision making reference-points are produced when consumers have to choose one from differentiated products, or enterprises have to pick up one satisfying operations decision from a feasible set, in which decision makers derive utility not from considering every choice absolutely, but from comparing feasible choices to some reference points, thus consumer choice behavior, enterprises' operations strategies, and competition and coordination between members are all subject to decision making reference-points..Firstly types of decision making reference-points are depicted when consumers make choices, enterprises compete and coordinate with others by using the methodologies of management experiments and thinking aloud; then how decision making reference points engenders and how much they are can be measured by means of statistics theory and rational expectation hypothesis，through studying consumers' choice behavior when facing multiple products and enterprises' pricing and ordering behaviors in a dynamic decisions position..Secondly by taking advantage of optimization theory, game theory and sensitive analysis, how decision making reference-points influence members' decisions is analyzed.When facing three kinds of selling strategies respectively: advance selling experienced products, selling certain products vs probabilistic products, and selling old version products and updated version products, risk neutral or risk averse consumers make the options when and which to purchase, and decision making reference-points are invented by the trading process would impact consumers' choice behavior and enterprisers' operations strategies.Focusing on one price-setting newsvendor and one multiple-products multiple mambers operations system respectively, risk nutural or risk averse enterprises decide prices and orders ,how decision making reference-points influence operations behavior, and competition between members is induced. In the supply chain system different coordination contracts are investigated when retailers maximize its utility with considering decision making reference-points, then how suppliers choose coordination contracts is studied.

顾客面临多类产品、企业面临多种运作决策抉择时，因比较引发的决策参考点形成机理，及其对顾客购买选择行为、企业运作决策、成员间竞争和协调策略的影响各异。第一，采用管理实验、出声思考揭示顾客购买选择行为、企业间竞争和协调中的参考点类型；借助统计分析和理性预期方式刻画面临多类产品时顾客选择行为规律、不同运作环境中企业的定价和订购决策规律，推演不同销售和运作情境中决策参考点的形成机理。第二，采用最优化理论、博弈论和敏感性分析方法，当风险中性或风险规避型顾客，面临企业所提供不同销售策略和产品：提前销售经验型产品、确定型产品和概率型产品、旧产品和更新产品时，研究决策参考点对顾客购买行为及企业运作决策的影响；针对价格内生单零售商、多产品多零售商系统，分析风险中性或风险规避型企业的决策参考点对运作策略、成员间竞争行为的影响；刻画协调合同范式所引发的决策参考点对订购决策，及供应商选择不同协调合同类型的影响。

顾客面临多类产品、企业面临多种运作决策抉择时，因比较引发的决策参考点的形成机理，及其对顾客购买选择行为、企业运作决策和协调策略的影响各异。本项目采用管理实验、最优化理论、博弈论和敏感性分析方法，得出如下研究结论。第一，在不同运作和销售情境中,刻画了企业的运作决策规律及消费者的购买决策行为机理，给出了决策参考点的形成机理。第二，在不同销售情景中，分析了消费者的比较行为对消费者和企业决策的影响；在不同运作情景中，分析了企业间收益比较所引发的参考点效应对企业运作决策的影响；第三，探讨了成员的公平感、信用、风险规避度及损失规避度对供应链上成员间的交易合同机制设计的影响。