浅埋深煤层煤矿地表生态影响预测方法

The coal mining of shallow buried deep coal seam will greatly impact on surface ecology, and make the vulnerable ecological environment getting worse. The research on forecasting methods of surface ecological impact of shallow buried deep coal seam coal mine will help us understand how to mine shallow buried deep coal seam without affecting surface ecology, which will in turn contribute to both theory and practice. In this study, we will build ecological index system for shallow buried deep coal seam coal mine, investigate the regular patterns of how shallow buried deep coal seam coal mine affect surface ecology, compare different forecasting methods and summary their application conditions, develop forecasting models related to surface ecological impact of shallow buried deep coal seam coal mine, and build effective early warning system of surface ecological impact of shallow buried deep coal seam coal mine. The research methods include field investigation, geographical information system, analogy survey, pattern prediction, gray-Markov model, support vector machine and fuzzy set theory etc., which are adopted from ecology, geography, physical mechanics and engineering geology etc. Furthermore, we will conduct application study based on the practices in shallow buried deep coal seam coal mines to explore the forecasting methods of the surface ecological impact. The findings in this study will provide theory foundation and decision-making evidence for coal mining in shallow buried deep coal seam coal mines.

浅埋深煤层的开采会对地表生态环境带来严重的影响，使本来就脆弱的生态环境更加恶化。研究浅埋深煤层煤矿地表生态影响的预测方法，从而为在不影响地表生态环境的前提下开采浅埋深煤层煤矿提供基础，具有重要的理论价值和实践意义。本项目借鉴生态学、地理学、物理力学和工程地质学等学科的知识，综合运用现场勘查、地理信息系统(GIS)、类比调查、模式预测、灰色马尔柯夫模型、支持向量机和模糊集合论等方法，构建浅埋深煤层煤矿地表生态指标体系，研究浅埋深煤层煤矿地表生态影响的规律，比较不同预测方法之间的差异及适用条件，构建浅埋深煤层煤矿地表生态影响预测模型，建立有效的浅埋深煤层煤矿地表生态影响预警系统。结合典型浅埋深煤层煤矿的现状，开展实践研究并检验研究成果，探索适应浅埋深煤层煤矿的地表生态影响预测方法，为浅埋深煤层煤矿的开发提供理论基础和决策依据。

在本项目研究中，主要取得以下进展：1.运用层次分析法和模糊评判法确定并构建了适合浅埋深煤层煤矿的指标体系和各指标权重，确定浅埋深煤层矿区地表生态影响主要集中在土地环境、植被环境和地表水环境三个方面。2.梳理现有生态环境影响预测方法的优缺点和使用范围，通过对它们进行对比分析，并结合煤矿自身特性，从而建立适合浅埋深煤层煤矿地表沉陷最大值、水环境质量等预测的最优模型，对数据样本进行训练、测试，以验证模型的可行性及有效性。3.在预测模型的基础上，系统地总结相关研究成果，针对浅埋深煤层煤矿地表生态的变化，建立了一套预警系统；4.根据观测报告，对浅埋深煤层综放开采引起的地表裂缝特征、下沉规律进行了研究，得出了起动距、超前影响角、地表最大下沉速度等动态地表移动参数。5.项目组获取了大柳塔、哈拉沟、上湾等三个煤矿矿井水处理厂水质检测报告，对于水中悬浮物、重金属、石油类等指标定量分析，实现对矿区水质污染状况有深入的研究。6.针对典型煤矿开采对地表植被的影响，项目组赴矿区现场进行实地调查、样方测定等工作，结合10年遥感影像数据，分析矿区多年来地表植被群落种类、植被覆盖度和群落多样性的变化情况，对植被覆盖度好转及群落优势种的转变进行原因分析。