有限电力消纳能力下梯级水库群联合消落方式研究

This research is aimed to solve the joint drawdown dispatch problem of large cascade reservoirs in the upstream of the Yangtze River, considering the restricted electricity consumption of power system. Firstly, a multi-stage nonlinear optimization model of this problem is constructed by analysis of runoff characteristics, operation mode of reservoirs and power system. Then, the operational research is applied to this multi-stage nonlinear optimization model to uncover the monotone principle in joint drawdown dispatch problem considering restricted electricity consumption. A negative condition of hessian matrix or gradient matrix of this model is expected to describe the relationship of compensation benefits between different reservoirs, quantitatively. Finally, a water-level-fluctuating criterion based on the proposed monotone principle, which affects the drawdown characteristic of reservoirs, is proposed. Then a drawdown rule based on water-level-fluctuating criterion and dispatch graph is proposed to confirm the operation pattern of cascade reservoirs, aiming to maximize hydropower benefit and balance the benefit between hydropower and water storage of cascade reservoirs during drawdown season. However, since the inaccuracy of the drawdown rule, an intelligence algorithm is used to amend its parameters. Therefore, the study can provide the reference for actual operation of cascade reservoirs in drawdown season.

针对有限电力消纳能力下流域水库群枯水期水位集中消落导致的大规模弃水问题，以长江上游大规模水库群为研究对象，通过分析长江上游干支流径流特性、梯级各水库运用功能与运行方式、送/受端电网水电消纳能力和分时电价政策，构建大规模梯级水库群联合消落调度多阶段非线性约束优化模型；运用运筹学方法探究梯级水库群联合消落调度问题中的最优性原理，推求水库群联合消落调度多阶段问题的最优性条件和可反映梯级总发电效益与梯级各水库消落流量解析关系的梯度矩阵，以揭示库群间水头效益的解析关系；提出基于最优性原理的梯级水库群联合消落规则，确定面临时段梯级各水库的消落时机、次序和深度，并通过长系列实测径流模拟调度的方法对所提规则进行验证和率定，为长江上游大规模水库群联合消落调度提供理论依据和技术支撑。

针对有限电力消纳能力下流域水库群枯水期水位集中消落导致的大规模弃水的问题，以长江上游大规模水库群为研究对象，分析了长江上游干支流径流特性、梯级各水库运用功能与运行方式、送/受端电网水电消纳能力，构建了大规模梯级水库群联合消落调度多阶段非线性约束优化模型；进而，推求水库群联合消落调度多阶段问题的最优性条件和可反映梯级总发电效益与梯级各水库消落流量解析关系的梯度矩阵；并进一步提出了基于最优性原理的梯级水库群联合消落规则，确定面临时段梯级各水库的消落时机、次序和深度。将相关理论方法应用至长江上游梯级水库群的消落期调度中，结果表明：在假定未来径流预报无偏差的情况下，依据本项目规则进行调度和梯级水库群整体优化调度在消落时机、次序和深度方面基本一致，说明本项目提出的调度规则可为梯级水库群开展消落期优化调度的实际工程应用提供有力的技术支撑。