实现我国碳强度目标的关键因素与减排策略研究

In 2009, China put forward the carbon intensity control target up to 2020. However, in recent years, the growth of China's CO2 emissions has been rapid. In 2010, China's CO2 emissions accounted for 24.1% of the total global CO2 emissions, and China's CO2 emissions increment accounted for 1/3 of the total global CO2 emissions increment. With the sustained growth of economy and energy consumption, China's CO2 emissions will continue to increase in the future. Therefore,how to favorably achieve the carbon intensity target of China has emerged as a research hotspot. Aiming at the key scientific issues, from the perspective of system science, this project will apply decision and optimization, evaluation and prediction, computer simulation and other approaches, combined with the status and characteristics of China's CO2 emissions, to establish China's CO2 emissions estimation and prediction models, drivers identification and evaluation models, potential estimation model for structural emission reduction strategies, and system dynamics model for structural emission reduction. This study will employ these models to carry out deeply quantitative research on theories and methods system of achieving the carbon intensity control target of China. At the same time, this study will pay attention to combination of theory and practice, aiming at the initial formation of key contrl factors and industrial emission reduction strategies under the background of China's carbon intensity target. This project emphasizes the integration of multidisciplinary and focuses on the combination of theory and practice,which aims at capturing the key control factors of China's CO2 emissions and making out the structural emission reduction strategies, providing decision-makers with information supports and decision-making bases.

2009年，我国提出了2020年碳强度控制目标。近年来，我国碳排放量增长迅速，2010年已占全球碳排放总量的24.1%，新增量占全球新增量的1/3，受经济的持续增长和能源消费量的不断增加，未来将会继续上升，所以如何顺利实现我国碳强度目标问题凸显。 本项目针对实现我国碳强度目标面临的亟待解决的关键管理科学问题，从系统科学的角度，综合应用决策与优化、评价与预测、计算机模拟等理论方法，紧密结合我国碳排放增长现状与特点，建立我国碳排放量测算与预测模型、碳排放增长驱动因素识别与度量模型、结构减排潜力评估模型、结构减排策略系统动力学模型，深入探讨定量研究实现我国碳强度目标的理论方法体系。同时，注重理论方法研究与实践相结合，初步形成实现我国碳强度目标的关键控制因素和相应的结构减排策略。 本研究强调多学科的交叉融合，旨在为我国制定科学合理的碳强度目标实现途径和相应的结构减排策略，提供信息支持和决策参考。

项目组紧密结合我国碳排放增长现状与特点，初步建立了我国碳排放量测算与预测模型、碳排放增长驱动因素识别与度量模型、结构减排潜力评估模型等，初步形成了实现我国碳强度目标的关键控制因素和相应的结构减排策略， 已完成和发表了学术论文16篇，其中发表了12篇（SSCI/SCI9篇，中文核心期刊3篇），培养2名硕士生。项目研究成果强调多学科的交叉融合，期望为我国制定科学合理的碳强度目标实现途径和相应的结构减排策略，提供信息支持和决策参考。