气候变化影响下禽流感传播的建模与研究

Climate change affects the population growth and the spread of disease seriously.In recent years, the spread of avian influenza and avian-human influenza in the world has posed a serious threat to human health and survival. This project formulates and studies the effect of climate change on the transmission of avian influenza and avian-human influenza, including the avian influenza and avian-human influenza models with season (periodic) change, totally non-autonomous models in which the birth rate, mortality, poultry infection rates are affected by the climate change and models with poulty killing, isolation to infected individual,treatment, or vaccination, by using the theory of differential equations,persistence theory of non-autonomous differential equations and optimal control theory, we investigate the dynamical behavior of these models, including disease-free periodic solution, endemic periodic solution, and persistence, the optimal control of these models are also studied. The aim of this project is to reveal the transmission principle of avian influenza, avian-human influenza under the condition of climate change, to provide the theoretical basis of prevention and control to the spread of avian influenza and avian-human influenza.

气候变化对种群生长和疾病传播有重要影响.近年来，禽流感在世界各地的流行和传播, 给人类的健康和生存构成严重威胁.本项目主要建立和研究气候变化情况下禽流感、人-禽流感传播的数学模型，包括具有季节性（周期）变化的禽流感、人-禽流感模型和禽类出生、死亡率、感染率等受气候变化影响情况下（完全非自治）的禽流感、人-禽流感模型，以及考虑对感染禽类进行扑杀、对感染人进行隔离、治疗、接种疫苗等措施的数学模型; 运用微分方程理论、非自治微分方程的持续生存理论、最优控制理论等，研究这些模型的动力学性态，包括无病周期解、地方病周期解、疾病消失、持续的条件以及最优控制策略问题. 揭示气候变化条件下禽流感、人-禽流感的传播规律，为预防和控制禽流感、人-禽流感的传播提供理论依据.

禽流感在世界各地的流行和传播,给人类的健康和生存构成严重威,对禽流感传播进行建模与研究,揭示其传播规律对控制或抑制禽流感传播具有重要意义.本项目主要根据禽流感传播特点,建立和研究了气候变化条件下禽流感、人—禽流感传播模型, 建立和研究了具有潜伏时滞和环境传染的两菌株人—禽流感传播模型, 运用微分方程定性稳定性理论及时滞微分方程理论等,对这些模型的动力学性态如基本再生数的表达式, 无病平衡点、地方病平衡点、菌株占优平衡点、共存平衡点等的存在性和局部与全局稳定性条件等进行研究, 并用近年来H7N9传播数据,对模型进行了数值模拟.揭示气候变化条件下禽流感、人-禽流感的传播规律,为预防和控制禽流感、人-禽流感的传播提供理论依据.项目共发表论文6篇, 其中在SCI收录期刊发表4篇.