适婚人群性别失配背景下的婚配竞争与住房市场：传导机理、跨层测度与时空演变

In China, there is a close relationship between mating competition and housing market. Whether the relationship between them is fundamentally revealed is the key to scientific management, effective regulation and building a harmonious society. This project takes transmission mechanism, cross-layer measurement and spatio-temporal evolution of the relationship between mating competition and housing market as the logical frame, and uses three-dimensional analysis scheme including macro-micro integration, nonlinear technology and temporal-spatial integration, combining theoretical research, empirical analysis, traditional method and modern technology..First, cross-layer analysis is used to construct the transmission mechanism model of “marriage” and “housing”, featuring macro-micro connection and time-space dimension extension. Second, non-linear technology is used to measure the spillover effect of mating competition on housing market at micro and macro levels. Finally, this project conducts exploratory data analysis on the relationship between mating competition and housing market based on time and space dimensions, describes the evolution characteristics and also puts forward some suggestions. .This research will systematically answer a series of problems such as transmission, measurements and evolution of the influence of mating competition on housing market. The result will improve the theory and method systems of housing market motivation analysis. Thus, it can practically provide the basis for real estate investment and consumption decision-making, macro-control policy, and urban planning of population. Also, it is of great significance for marriageable population to realize the dream of having a home to settle in and for the society to achieve harmonious, stable and high-quality development.

在中国社会，婚配竞争与住房市场之间有着紧密关联，能否揭示出二者的本质联系是科学管理、有效调控、构建和谐社会的关键。本项目以婚配竞争与住房市场关系的传导机理、跨层测度与时空演变为逻辑主线，按照宏微互融、非线性技术、时空复合的三维分析方案，将理论研究和实证分析、传统方法与现代技术结合起来。首先，采用跨层次分析法构建宏观-微观层次联接、时间-空间维度延展的“婚”•“房”传导机理模型；其次，运用非线性随机过程分析等技术从微观、宏观层面测度婚配竞争对住房市场的溢出效应；最后，在时间、空间维度对婚配竞争与住房市场的关系进行探索性数据分析，刻画演变特征并提出建议。上述研究将系统解答婚配竞争对住房市场影响的传导、测度及演变等连锁问题，研究成果将完善住房与婚姻理论及方法体系，可为住房投资消费决策、宏观调控、人口城市规划提供依据，对于适婚人群实现美好生活安居梦，对于国家实现和谐稳定及经济高质量发展意义重大。

住房问题属于我国重大经济问题范畴，必须对其发展规律进行系统研究。同时，我国日益加剧的婚配竞争中婚房竞争风气盛行，该社会现象的负面影响可能会由弱势群体承受，加重社会不公平。因此，婚姻市场与住房市场的关系问题是构建和谐社会必须重视的问题。.本项目首先在经典信号理论模型基础上构建了信息不对称条件下有无住房信号、男女均衡失衡双重对照的婚姻匹配模型。同时，从个人生命周期内实现效用最大化决策入手，利用世代交叠模型和考虑动态最优的贝尔曼方程构建了“婚”·“房”传导机理模型，厘清了婚配竞争与住房市场的内在关联。其次，以“中国家庭追踪调查”数据为主体，从微观层面测度婚配竞争对家庭住房租购选择及住房类别选择等消费行为的影响效力。再次，以中国293个地级市为对象，采用面板门槛模型、面板分位数模型、空间计量模型等方法，从宏观城市层面刻画婚配竞争对住房市场的非线性影响效应和空间溢出效应。接着，考虑家庭财富代际转移、金融发展和青年人才集聚等更为复杂的因素。最后，在时间、空间维度对婚配竞争与住房市场的关系进行探索性数据分析和对比分析，刻画演变特征并提出建议。研究显示：婚配竞争压力对青年所在家庭住房租购决策和住房类别选择都有显著的正向影响，家庭住房消费行为具有“婚姻驱动”特征和时空异质性特征。婚配竞争对本地及邻地房价均具有显著刺激作用，且这种影响随城市地理区位、城市模型与时间区间的变化而变化。除最低分位点外，各个分位点下婚姻挤压对住房价格均产生了显著的正向影响，且在高房价城市对房价的刺激作用比低房价城市更大。家庭财富代际转移、父母利他行为能力、金融发展和人才集聚等在婚姻市场和住房市场的传导关系中扮演重要角色。.研究工作完善了住房与婚姻理论及方法体系，为住房投资消费决策、宏观调控、城市人口规划提供了科学依据，对于适婚人群实现美好生活安居梦，对于国家实现和谐稳定及经济高质量发展意义重大。