暴雨诱发滑坡地下水致灾机理及预测模型研究

Research on disaster coupling mechanism induced by underground water and forecasting model of rainstorm-induced landslides during flood season, is not only the national sighificant demand of landslide disaster control work, but important guaranty in maintaining social public security.This project is chiefly concerned with the typical bank landslide，and studies the controlling factors resulted in rainstorm-induced landslides, and the rules between deformation of sliding mass and rainfall and underground water are analyzed. Based on the mechanical model of the stability of landslide, the project focuses on establishing the cusp-catastrophic model of landslide under rainstorm and change ofunderground water level，and reveals the mutation mechanism of rainstorm-induced landslide. The nonlinear dynamic model of cataclysm evolution of landslide is established，considering the time effect property of sliding zone under the change of underground water level of rainstorm-induced landslide. The nonlinear evolution process of quantitative description of disaster induced by underground water of rainstorm-induced landslide is provided.Based on the interaction of controlled impact factors of rainform, underground water and time-effect deformation of landslide mass, the forecasting model is established based on coupling hydromechanical interaction of landslide mass. The research results of this project will provide scientific basis for basic theoretical research of disaster mechanism and pre warning and control of landslides.

开展暴雨诱发滑坡地下水致灾机理及预测模型研究，既是国家滑坡灾害防治工作的重大需求，又是维护社会公共安全的重要保障。本项目以典型库岸滑坡为例，通过暴雨诱发滑坡失稳的控制性因素分析，研究滑坡体变形特征与降雨、地下水位变化之间的规律性；基于滑坡体滑动失稳力学模型，建立考虑暴雨及地下水位变化作用下滑坡失稳尖点突变模型，揭示暴雨诱发滑坡失稳的突变机理；考虑暴雨诱发滑坡地下水位变化作用下滑动带时效变形特性，建立暴雨诱发滑坡灾变演化的非线性动力学模型，给出暴雨诱发滑坡地下水致灾非线性演化全过程的定量描述；研究降雨、地下水、滑坡体时效变形等控制性影响因子的相互作用，建立考虑滑坡水-力耦合的暴雨诱发滑坡预测模型。研究成果可为滑坡成灾机理与预警防控基础理论研究提供科学依据。

开展暴雨诱发滑坡地下水致灾机理及预测模型研究，既是国家滑坡灾害防治工作的重大需求，又是维护社会公共安全的重要保障。本项目以典型库岸滑坡为例，通过暴雨诱发滑坡失稳的控制性因素分析，研究滑坡体变形特征与降雨、地下水位变化之间的规律性；基于滑坡体滑动失稳力学模型，建立考虑暴雨及地下水位变化作用下滑坡失稳尖点突变模型，揭示暴雨诱发滑坡失稳的突变机理；考虑暴雨诱发滑坡地下水位变化作用下滑动带时效变形特性，建立暴雨诱发滑坡灾变演化的非线性动力学模型，给出暴雨诱发滑坡地下水致灾非线性演化全过程的定量描述；研究降雨、地下水、滑坡体时效变形等控制性影响因子的相互作用，建立考虑滑坡水-力耦合的暴雨诱发滑坡预测模型。研究成果可为滑坡成灾机理与预警防控基础理论研究提供科学依据。