关联基础设施系统协同效应及失效控制策略研究

Synergistic effects of interdependent infrastructure systems always lead to chain-reacting, couple amplify failure losses, and seriously affect stability of the economic and social systems of urban and region. The project comprehensive uses the theoretical methods and technologies of system science, complex networks and set theory to research. At the macro level, we will analyze the characteristics of the physical connections and functional conduction mechanisms between the boundary nodes of interdependent infrastructures, build multi-order coupled interdependent infrastructure networks, analyze emergency characteristics of the system under disturbing conditions by Monte Carlo simulation, and grasp the failure propagation laws of interdependent networks. At the micro level, based on the principle of synergistic effects, comprehensive using set decomposition method and combinatorial optimization algorithms, we will establish synergistic effect metric and identification method of important components sets, analyze the variation characteristics of components set sequences and important components over time, grasp the dynamic mechanisms between local structure and global function of interdependent infrastructure systems. Combined with typical cases, we will analyze the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of components of interdependent infrastructures by multi-scenario simulation, considering the constraints of time and resources in emergency state, in order to minimize function losses over whole process, put forwards failure control strategy of interdependent infrastructure systems. The project will provide basic and forward-looking theoretical foundation for safeguarding infrastructure security and optimizing emergency management system.

关联基础设施系统的协同效应易导致连锁反应，耦合放大失效损失，严重影响着城市和区域经济社会系统稳定。本项目综合运用系统科学、复杂网络、集合论等理论方法和技术，宏观层面，分析关联基础设施边界节点间的物理连接特点和功能传导机制，构建多阶耦合关联基础设施网络，蒙特卡洛模拟分析干扰条件下系统涌现特征，研究把握关联基础设施网络失效传播规律；微观层面，基于协同效应原理，运用集合分解方法、组合优化理论与算法，建立关联基础设施系统组分协同效应度量和重要组分集合识别方法，解析组分集合序列和重要组分随时间变化特征，把握关联基础设施系统局部结构与整体功能的动态作用机理；结合典型案例，多情景模拟分析关联基础设施失效组分的时空分布特征，综合考虑应急状态下时间、资源等约束条件，以全过程功能损失最小为目标，研究提出关联基础设施系统失效控制策略。研究为保障基础设施安全和优化应急管理体系提供基础性和前瞻性的理论基础。

随着经济社会快速发展和科学技术广泛应用，基础设施规模和功能不断增加。单一基础设施内部的局部扰动，将引发多领域基础设施大规模相继故障。识别关联基础设施潜在风险，分析把握基础设施间连锁反应机理，已成为及时有效应急处置、科学控制灾难演化的前提和基础。基于此，在青年科学基金（71301095）的资助下，项目组在过去三年对关联基础设施协同效应与失效控制策略展开研究，主要研究内容包括：（1）构建关联基础设施相互作用模型。以电力、交通、供水等系统作为研究对象，基于不同系统的工程特性、拓扑结构和关联关系，建立表征系统相互作用过程的仿真模型。（2）建立关键基础设施系统恢复力度量模型。为有效评估基础设施系统在受灾情景下的服务能力变化特征，以交通、金融等基础设施系统作为研究对象，结合不同系统的功能特征，构建恢复力度量模型并展开应用。（3）研究关联基础设施系统受灾修复策略。基于关联基础设施系统在受灾条件下的恢复力，以及基础设施服务能力需求等限制条件，从组分层面研究关联基础设施系统灾后修复策略，为基础设施灾后处置提供决策依据。依托项目研究，截至2017年1月，共发表研究论文4篇。项目研究成果可丰富关键基础设施保护的研究理论体系，为基础设施系统减灾防灾和应急管理提供理论借鉴和决策支撑。