我国垃圾焚烧发电PPP项目关键风险分析及系统应对研究

Appropriate risk management and responses are seemed as one of critical success factors for Public Private Partnership projects(PPPs)’ “Value For Money”. While the Public Private Partnership mode is considered as a Significant National strategy in china’s Infrastructure development, there is urgent need for us to analyze and study critical risk factors identification, analysis and responses. .With the growing economic development experienced in China, there is an urge for more and better public infrastructure. Public Private Partnership (PPPS) is an innovative method for delivering these facilities and services, especially in the Waste-To-Energy industry. The intrinsic characteristics and existing problems in PPPs demand better risk management and response to attain objectives of public and private parties. However, literature review and analysis shows that neither theoretical analysis nor industry practices for risk management and response are sufficient and Practical. .This study aims to: 1) identifying and analyzing critical risk factors of Public Private Partnership Waste-To-Energy projects in China, and studying Complex influence relationships between these critical risk factors; 2) investigating the risk preference of participants (both public and private parties), and establishing a quantitative model to allocate risks of PPP Waste-To-Energy projects between public and private parties; 3) creating and developing an appropriate plan to response these identified critical risk factors above to better the efficiency and performance of PPP Waste-To-Energy projects in China.

合理的风险分析与应对是基础设施PPP项目“物有所值（Value For Money）”的关键成功因素之一。在我国经济发展“新常态”下，公私合营（PPP）模式在垃圾焚烧发电行业的实践应用逐渐步入高峰，但大量垃圾焚烧发电PPP项目由于缺乏系统的风险管理与应对而未能让达到预期的目标；同时，现有相关研究相对薄弱，不能满足行业实践需求。因此，分析与研究我国垃圾焚烧发电PPP项目的关键风险分析与系统应对，进而提高其实施绩效具有重要的理论意义与实践价值。.本研究旨在：1）识别与分析影响我国垃圾焚烧发电PPP项目成功实施的关键风险因素；2）调查并检验我国垃圾焚烧发电PPP项目公、私双方的风险分担偏好差异，建立定量的风险分担模型；3）建立系统的、适合我国垃圾焚烧发电PPP项目实际情况的风险应对规划（机制）。从而为PPP 投融资模式更加有效地促进我国垃圾焚烧发电PPP项目基础设施建设和发展提供参考和借鉴。

合理的风险分析与应对是垃圾焚烧发电PPP项目实施绩效改善与可持续发展的基础，日益成为考验我国政府与垃圾焚烧发电企业相关管理能力的一个重要课题。.本项目从我国垃圾焚烧发电行业、PPP行业的现状出发，遵循发现问题、分析问题、解决问题的研究思路，系统识别与分析了我国垃圾焚烧发电 PPP 项目的关键风险因素，构建了基于双方风险携带能力的定量风险分担模型，建立系统的、适合我国垃圾焚烧发电 PPP 项目实际情况的风险应对规划；同时，以归因理论为理论基础，遵循公众接受分析框架，以杭州九峰、宁波枫林、上海天马、南京江北等垃圾焚烧发电PPP项目为研究案例，分析了垃圾焚烧发电PPP项目（邻避设施）社会风险发生机理，验证了公众参与、经济补偿、环境影响评价（EIA）等策略是否，以及如何，通过本地居民的公众感知，影响其对邻避型基础设施项目的接受。.本项目的研究结果在为垃圾焚烧发电项目风险管理、邻避型基础设施选址风险决策相关理论研究提供实证证据的同时，能够为政府部门、行业机构，以及公众相关决策与风险管理提供重要参考与借鉴。