快速城镇化背景下失控城镇用地的形成机理与空间效应：以苏州市为例

As the byproduct of development control failure of urban spatial planning,，uncontrolled urban land not only disturbs normal land development, but also affects healthy development of urbanization, which become the foci of urban geography study and policy areas. Currently, most studies recognize uncontrolled urban land from the perspective one particular type of spatial planning while ignore that urban land development is under the control of several types of spatial planning in China. From the perspective the development control in the “three plan”, this project explores the spatial-tempo characteristics, forming mechanism and spatial effects of the uncontrolled urban development in the context of rapid urbanization using a case study in Suzhou. It establishes a analytical framework for accounting for uncontrolled urban development according to the interaction between the state, market and society. Second, based on the development control mechanism for the newly added urban land, it recognizes the uncontrolled urban land with the help of a set of multi-source urban land data, and analyze the spatial-tempo characteristics. Secondly, using spatial econometric model and Actor-Network analytical method, it finds out the key factors scale formation of uncontrolled urban land, and explores the driving mechanism of spatial formation. Thirdly, it assesses the spatial effects of uncontrolled urban land from the perspectives of land use efficiency, urbanization quality, social development and eco-environment. Lastly, it puts forward some suggestion on land development control improvement and uncontrolled urban land optimization. This project is trying to understand uncontrolled urban land with multi dimensions of combing theory and demonstration, quantitative and qualitative methods, appearance and mechanism, which would enrich the theoretical methods and case studies of development control in urban China.

失控城镇用地是我国空间管制失效的产物，不但扰乱了正常的土地开发秩序，而且也影响了城镇化的健康发展，成为城市地理研究和政府关注的焦点。针对目前研究多从单一规划类型展开，本项目从五年规划、城市规划和土地利用规划共同管制的视角，以苏州为例，探讨失控城镇用地的时空特征、形成机理和空间效应。从空间管制中政府(央-地、部门间)、市场和社会互动关系的理论视角，构建解释失控城镇用地的分析框架；建立判别标准，识别失控城镇用地及其类型，刻画其时空演变特征；借助空间计量和行动者网络分析技术，从规模与空间两个方面，探索失控城镇用地的形成机理；从用地效率、城镇化质量、社会发展和生态环境等方面，评估失控城镇用地的空间效应。项目拟从理论与实证，定量与定性、表象与机理等多个维度深化对失控城镇用地的认识，丰富转型期中国空间管制的理论方法与实证案例，为城镇空间规划管制提供决策参考。

基于国内外空间规划体系文献梳理，建立一个我国市县五年规划、城市规划和土地利用规划等空间关系与城镇土地扩展管制的理论分析框架；基于ARCGIS平台集成案例地区相关年份的规划信息数据、遥感遥影像数据、土地利用调查数据、土地出让数据，人口和经济社会统计数据、访谈数据等，建立苏州规划协调性评估分析数据库；对“三规”在空间管制中的协调性分析，结合多源城镇用地扩展数据和土地出让数据，分析了城镇用地扩展格局和区域特征，评估“三规”在空间管制中的效果，识别失控城镇用地扩展的时空过程；分析不同类型失控城镇用地形成在总量上的影响机制，在空间上的驱动机制，探讨“三规”空间管制效果的影响机理和空间效应；最后提出基于“三规合一”的失控城镇用地管制对策。在快速城镇化背景下，该项目研究对我国城镇用地开发与管制政策制定提供了实证和理论支撑。