新型城镇化背景下中部地区人口就近城镇化潜力分析——以安徽省为例

In March 2014, the "National New Urbanization Planning" was issued, which indicates that China’s urbanization has entered into a transition period from "quantity growth" to "quality improvement" and emphasizes the core of human urbanization. Furthermore, Premier Li Keqiang, put forward the goal of realizing one hundred million populations to transfer to nearby cities and towns up to 2020 in Central and Western China. Faced with such reality, from the discipline of human and economy geography, our project tries to establish analytical framework and multi-disciplined calculation methods of the potential of proximate urbanization of population. Based on large fundamental researches, we will take Anhui Province as a typical research area, and conclude the process and pattern of urbanization in Anhui Province in recent years. More importantly, the analytical framework and calculation methods are structured in three dimensions, potential agricultural surplus labor, potential peasant migrants turning back home, the sucking capacity of urban non-agricultural economy individually, and are organized from three aspects, which are the scale of supplier and receiver, and intermediate transformation probability. To make it more reasonable, we will integrate query data which reflects the willing of peasants with the mathematical results, and then put forward the potential and mode of proximate urbanization of population in Anhui Province, and moreover, give scientific basis for the implementation of the experimental unit of new-type urbanization in Central China.

2014年3月，国家发布了新型城镇化规划，这标志着我国城镇化从数量增长型向质量提升型转型，突出强调以人的城镇化为核心，并进一步提出要推进1亿人在中西部地区就近城镇化。本课题拟围绕这一现实需求，从人文经济地理学学科出发，借鉴多学科研究方法，尝试建立人口就近城镇化的潜力分析框架和测算方法。在梳理已有研究基础上，以中部地区的安徽省为典型案例区，回顾近些年来安徽省城镇化的过程和格局特征，重点分析农村剩余劳动力规模、异地农民工返乡规模和城镇非农产业发展的吸纳能力，即从农民工供给端、城镇发展接纳端、中间转移概率三个方面构建出就近城镇化分析框架和定量测算方法，结合问卷调查分析农民工自身意愿，提出安徽省促进人口就近城镇化的潜力和模式，为科学制定中部地区和安徽省实施新型城镇化试点提供决策依据。

2014年3月，国家发布了新型城镇化规划，标志着我国城镇化从数量增长型向质量提升型转型，突出强调人的城镇化，并进一步提出要推进1亿人在中西部地区实现城镇化。本项目研究目标是全面总结新型城镇化发展的新格局与新态势，提出与过去大规模的异地城镇化有着显著差别的就近城镇化模式，分析中部地区城镇化发展的演化特征，建构新型城镇化背景下中部地区的人口就近城镇化发展模式，提出了安徽省新型城镇化的潜力测算的方法与初步结果，分析安徽省流动人口“源”（人口流出）与“汇”（人口流入）的类型属性特征与空间格局。以安徽省为典型案例，评估新型城镇化的重大进展与存在问题，提出深入推进新型城镇化的政策建议，发现新型城镇化改革与实践使得农民工进城的制度成本下降，却产生了非规划预期的高昂的经济成本。高房价成为制约新型城镇化规划及其顺利实施的重要因素，也很可能损害中国高质量新型城镇化的前景。测算分析了安徽省流出人口特征、就近城镇化规模潜力测算与新型城镇化道路，推动本地农业剩余人口转移、农民工返乡就业和农民工返乡创业等多样化路径。形成了中部地区就近城镇化的若干专题数据。研究初步建构了中国特色新型城镇化提供了初步理论内涵，提出了就近城镇化理论模式，丰富了城市地理学在城镇化领域的相关基础研究理论方法与实践，为深入推进以人为核心的国家新型城镇化战略提供了科技支撑。