基于知识元的突发事件演化推演方法研究

The deduction of emergencies evolution is the base of forecast and decision. To solve the following problems, such as exiting deduction methods can't adapt to the multidisciplinary and complexity of the emergencies, large number of existing cases and rules can't be managed effectively, different reasoning methods can't be fused deeply and so on, the project starts from the management cognitive primitive of emergencies, and then research on the deduction method based on the knowledge element of emergencies. The study focuses on the following topics: Firstly, formalize the scene of emergency cases and their relationship combined with instantiated knowledge element, and then build a method of case formal description based on the knowledge element. Secondly, build the representation and management method of the knowledge element's emergencies inference rules based on the extraction of common knowledge element. Thirdly, extract, analyze and deduce the information fundamentals, research and deduce an identification method of information's key elements. Then provide a mixed deduction method about emergencies based on the knowledge element integration case reasoning and rule-based reasoning. At last, develop a prototype system which is about emergencies' knowledge management and mixed deduction, then test and verify the system through examples. The study of this subject can enrich and optimize the deductive ways. It also can provide a basic method for the management of the emergencies' information, case, rules and event deduction, and provide support for emergency response and blocking.

突发事件演化推演是预测、决策以及仿真的基础环节。针对现有的推演方法难以适应突发事件的多科性与复杂性，大量的案例及规则不能得到有效的管理和利用，缺乏多种推演方法的深度融合的问题，本课题从突发事件的管理学认知本原出发，基于知识元研究突发事件演化的推演方法。具体包括：1）结合知识元的实例化对突发事件案例的情景及其关联关系进行形式化描述，构建基于知识元的案例形式化描述方法；2）基于共性知识元的抽取，构建基于知识元的突发事件推演规则的表示与管理方法；3）提炼并分析推演信息基础要素，研究推演关键要素的识别方法；4）基于知识元融合案例与规则推理，构建突发事件的混合推演方法；5）突发事件知识管理与混合推演的原型系统开发和实例验证。通过本课题的研究，可以丰富、优化推演途径，为突发事件的信息、案例、规则的管理及事件推演提供基础方法，为突发事件的应对与阻断提供支撑。

本课题以知识元作为突发事件案例、情景以及推演规则的共性描述基础，提出相应的表示、存储以及调用方法。通过对突发事件推演过程中涉及的知识进行梳理，分析挖掘其中的关键要素，识别演化过程的风险。基于知识元融合案例与规则推理，构建突发事件的混合推演方法。结合收集整理的大量突发事件案例、推演规则以及相关理论研究成果，开发了应急管理决策辅助系统，相关研究成果在实际应急管理系统开发中得到应用。. 本课题针对申报书中的研究内容展开科研工作，并逐项完成了各部分的科研任务，实现了预期的科研目标。围绕本课题的研究内容，共发表和录用国家自然科学基金委管理学部认定的国内重要期刊论文16篇，SCI期刊论文2篇，出版专著1部，培养博士及硕士研究生共17人。通过发表的科研论文展现科研工作的理论价值，通过具体的应用系统开发和项目实践，体现了实际应用价值。研究成果对于提高突发事件案例与规则的管理与应用效率，提高突发事件推演的可行性与可靠性，提升突发事件预测与决策能力具有重要意义。