跑道积冰机理及主动预警方法研究

Icing on runway brings serious hidden dangers to aircraft safety and flight delays. One effective method to overcome the dangers is the accurate active early warning of icing. The cores of the method are the three followings: a, evolvement of surface temperature and icing mechanism of icing on continuous running runway; b, short-term prediction for ice thickness of runway area; c, perceptive control technology of icing by active cooling on runway. For the problem of runway icing mechanism, runway structural materials, flight takeoff and landing taxiing and the effect of deicing liquid on runway temperature evolvement and icing were introduced to explore the icing mechanism on runway when multi-factors were coupling. Similarly, aiming at the problem of short-term prediction of icing on runway, a thermodynamic model of runway temperature evolvement and prediction under the joint action of multi-parameters was established. Combined with the long-term response period and good continuity of runway temperature, a short-term accurate prediction model for ice thickness of runway was constructed based on small sample data. Additionally, from the perspective of timeliness and accuracy of active early warning when icing on runway, considering the retention time of deicing fluid and the time-window constraints of deicing operation, the temperature control strategy of icing by active cooling perceptive system with strong disturbance and variable load was studied in order to realize the accurate control technology of active early warning of icing. Finally, according to the idea of icing mechanism, thickness prediction and timeliness early warning, an active early warning method for icing on runway was constructed.

跑道积冰对飞行安全和航班延误带来严重隐患，精准的跑道积冰主动预警方法是克服上述隐患的有效措施。跑道积冰持续运行的道面温度演变及积冰机理、面向跑道环境的道面积冰厚度短时预测和跑道主动降温积冰感知控制技术是主动预警方法的核心。面对跑道积冰机理问题，引入跑道结构材料、航班起降滑行和除冰液对跑道温度演化及积冰影响机制，探索多因素耦合时跑道积冰机理；针对跑道积冰厚度短时预测问题，建立多参数联合作用下跑道温度演变及预测热力学模型，结合跑道温度响应周期长且连续性好特点，基于小样本数据挖掘构建跑道积冰厚度短时精准预测模型；从跑道积冰主动预警的时效性和准确性出发，考虑除冰液保持时间和除冰作业时间窗口约束，研究强扰动、变负荷的降温积冰感知系统温度控制策略，实现跑道积冰主动预警的精准控制技术。最后构建了基于积冰机理-厚度预测-时效预警思路的跑道积冰主动预警方法。

跑道积冰给航班正点率和起降安全带来严重隐患，精准的跑道积冰主动预警方法是克服上述隐患的有效措施。本课题针对跑道积冰主动预警需求，开展冬季机场跑道持续运行时气象环境、除冰液参数以及跑道交通状况等多因素耦合的跑道积冰机理及主动预警方法研究。主要从“多因素耦合下跑道积冰机理”、“冰雪条件下跑道温度演变机理及预测”、“基于数据挖掘的跑道积冰厚度预测”及“面向精准制冷温度控制的跑道主动降温积冰预警”四方面展开研究。. 项目通过理论分析，数值模拟和实验研究，对跑道积冰机理及主动预警问题展开深入研究。从微观角度出发，以经典成核理论为基础，针对不同道面材料特性及道面二次积冰等问题开展物理机理方法研究，研究道面固液相变机理，建立跑道表面结冰温度模型，为跑道积冰预警奠定理论基础；针对冰雪天气下跑道温度演变研究，通过分析跑道温度变化影响因素，建立跑道温度演变机理预测模型以及基于数据驱动的预测模型，同时，综合考虑跑道温度变化的机理特性与数据预测模型的动态时序性，建立基于机理与数据驱动相结合的混合预测模型提高预测准确性和稳定性；针对跑道积冰厚度预测问题，通过分析气象、环境、道面材料等因素对积冰厚度影响大小，基于小样本数据挖掘建立多因素联合作用下跑道积冰厚度预测模型；从机场跑道积冰主动预警的实际需求出发，设计以热电制冷器(TEC)为核心制冷器件的主动降温装置，分析装置工作特性，设计控制算法控制装置表面降温温度，实现主动降温及积冰预警。同时基于上述研究内容，搭建跑道积冰预警实验系统，集成数据采集传感器以及跑道积冰主动降温预警装置，实现数据远程无线传输，设计上位机交互界面，嵌入各部分理论研究算法，实现跑道积冰主动预警。. 本项目的研究成果能够给机场跑道积冰运行保障提供有效依据，有效减少航班延误时间，保障航班起降安全，具有良好的应用前景。