区域农业干旱形成机理及预警预报方法研究

With the increasing impact of climate change and human activities, drought happens in more area with higher frequency and has becomed one of the major natural disasters in China. Agriculture drought disaster mechanism is the most complicated，its involved scope is the most widely and disaster effect is the most serious.This research takes Henan grain production core area as a case study to test and diagnosis the spatial-temporal evolution of agriculture drought.The main driving factors and individual influence of agriculture drought with the impact of climate change and human activities will be revealed and identified in this study.The driving model of agriculture drought after combining the climate-natural rhythm，hydrometeorological conditions，underlying conditions and hydraulic projects will be built.The quantitative analysis method of agriculture drought driving mechanism based on multilayer decoupling mode will be proposed in this study.The research will build the early-warning index system and determine characteristics threshold of various types agriculture regions.An unified physical mechanism and multi-scale nested atmosphere-land coupling forecast model of agriculture drought will be built based on regional climate model and distributed hydrological simulation technology.With this project，it will provide scientific basis and basic information for improving the regional agricultural drought resistance，avoiding the risk of agricultural drought and ensuring food security.

受全球气候变化和人类活动的影响，干旱在我国呈现出广发和频发态势，已经成为我国首要的自然灾害之一，尤其是农业干旱成灾机理最为复杂、涉及范围最广、灾害影响最为严重。本研究选择河南粮食生产核心区为典型研究区域，检测诊断农业干旱时空演变 规律及变化过程，揭示气候变化和人类活动影响下农业干旱的主要驱动要素并辨识其相对贡献；构建涵盖气候自然节律、水文气象条件、下垫面状况和水利工程等四类因子的农业干旱驱动模式，提出基于多层解耦模式的农业干旱驱动机制定量化识别方法；建立不同类型农业区农业干旱预警指标体系并确定其指标特征阈值；基于区域气候模式和分布式水文模拟技术，建立具有统一物理机制和多尺度嵌套的气-陆耦合农业干旱预报模型，模型实证研究基础上给出适宜的气候、水文模式参数集。旨在为提高区域农业抗旱能力、规避农业干旱风险、保障粮食安全提供科学依据和基础信息。

（1）本研究选择河南粮食生产核心区为典型研究区域，检测诊断农业干旱时空演变规律及变化过程，揭示了气候变化和人类活动影响下农业干旱的主要驱动要素并辨识其相对贡献；（2）构建了涵盖气候自然节律、水文气象条件、下垫面状况和水利工程等四类因子的农业干旱驱动模式，提出了基于多层解耦模式的农业干旱驱动机制定量化识别方法；（3）建立了不同类型农业区农业干旱预警指标体系并确定其指标特征阈值；（4）基于区域气候模式和分布式水文模拟技术，建立了具有统一物理机制和多尺度嵌套的气-陆耦合农业干旱预报模型，模型实证研究基础上给出适宜的气候、水文模式参数集。研究成果可为提高区域农业抗旱能力、规避农业干旱风险、保障粮食安全提供科学依据和基础信息。