城镇住房保障与房地产、住房金融耦合的调控模式及其优化策略研究

The construction of indemnificatory housing in town is great importance livelihood event of the CPC Central Committee and State Council，to increase the number of indemnificatory housing, not only help to increase the supply of real estate, but also the real estate market will have a greater impact,price movements in particular. This project to the research object as to the scale of indemnificatory housing, real estate prices and housing finance efficiency, with the help of econometric techniques and system dynamics feedback dynamic complex analysis methods, based on the idea of sustainable development, the use of the system scientific theories and finance theory，carry out empirical research on coupling relationship of Housing Security - Real Estate - Housing Finance，and build system 的dynamics model or flow diagram of Housing Security - Real Estate - Housing Finance coupling. According to the external environment and policy control, build coupling regulation mode of Housing Security - Real Estate - Housing Finance. According to the evolution trend of the scale of indemnificatory housing, real estate prices and housing finance efficiency, given the optimization strategy of the coupled regulation mode. These provide new ideas for housing security, real estate and housing finance win-win model of development.

城镇保障性住房建设是党中央、国务院高度重视的民生大事，加大保障房安居工程的建设力度，不仅有利于增加房地产的供给力度，而且对房地产市场特别是价格走势会产生较大影响。本项目以保障性住房规模、商品房价格及住房金融效率为研究对象，基于可持续发展理念、运用系统科学理论和金融学原理，借助计量经济技术和系统动力学反馈动态复杂性分析方法，对住房保障-房地产-住房金融耦合机理展开实证研究，构建住房保障-房地产-住房金融耦合系统动力学仿真模型流图，依据外部环境及政策调控构建住房保障-房地产-住房金融耦合调控模式，依据保障性住房规模、商品房价格及住房金融效率演进趋势给出耦合调控模式的优化策略，为住房保障、房地产与住房金融多赢发展模式提供新的思路。

城镇保障性住房建设是党中央、国务院高度重视的民生大事，而房地产的稳定是经济协调发展的关键问题。本课题综合运用了系统科学理论、内生增长理论和循环经济理论，以及计量经济学、统计学、系统动力学的思想方法，沿着房地产—要素—经济—住房金融的逻辑主线展开系统分析，分别对全国和南昌市的住房保障—房地产—住房金融问题进行研究及耦合协调发展情况进行了评价；对保障性住房规模与商品房价格、住房金融效率进行了系统动力学建模与仿真评价。. 关键结论：住房保障、房地产与住房金融的互动关系具备系统复杂性和耦合特征，系统耦合协调程度主要取决于经济和社会发展水平；税收政策、货币政策与房地产价格相互作用，城市化促进房地产的发展，房地产推动城市化发展的进程，住房金融正向作用于经济发展水平，经济发展水平正向作用于住房保障等。. 重要政策建议：制定配套政策,建立专业化管理机构,优化融资渠道,创新公租房运营模式,实行公平的准入机制,促进保障性住房的发展；合理地设置租金额,改变补贴方式,通过准市场化模式来提高保障房物业服务水平；控制商品房价格过快上涨，实施宽松金融政策，加快农民工市民化，化解当前我国房地产库存。