游客与潜在旅游者比较视角的目的地灾后旅游风险认知研究：以破坏性地震影响的四川、云南旅游目的地为例

Compared with other industries, tourism is more vulnerable to greater risks when disasters come. Tourism recovery and rebuilding post-disaster can become the “engine” of economic and social recovery and rebuilding, especially tourism is the leading industry of the disaster area’s national economy. The psychological impact on people brought about by disasters is likely to be more profound than the mere physical damage. It will contribute to the developing of management strategies for post-disaster reconstruction work if travelers’ psychology ，perceptions，and perceptions can be well studied and understood. With this advantage at hand, based on the literature on theoretical foundations on psychology and behavior and the influence exerted by the earthquake on tourism in disaster area, this research will propose theoretical conceptual models. The research chose to study six devastating earthquake disaster events had happened during 1996-2014 years which had impacted on Sichuan Province and Yunnan Province. The research will chose to measure tourists and potential tourists’ risk perceptions and related variables on the same period in every year during 2014-2016. The database would be developed to show diachronic and spatial comparisons of tourists risk perceptions after the earthquake..The research has analyzed and tested the relations between all variables regarding tourists’ risk perceptions by employing the SEM. This study has employed such mathematical statistical methods as comprehensive model cross sample-SEM, measure model cross sample-SEM, independent sample parameter survey, and multi-variance analysis. Based on these methods, this study probes into traveling behaviors variables, dimension and factors respectively and profoundly, and discloses the direction and intensity of behavior changes. Eventually, two-factor MANOVA was used to compare diachronically tourists’ behavior of different groups of travelers in the segmented market. This study is to probe into how natural disasters such as earthquake exert influence on destination touring and tourism from the angle of tourists’ psychological behaviors including destination perception ,perception, and evaluation. Analysis with the purpose of finding approaches to controlling and reducing the level of risk perception, and providing basic data and theoretical support for developing appropriate strategies suck as risk warning, risk prevention and risk aversion. In the end, the study propose tourism management frame for post-disaster reconstruction work based on the comparative perspective-horizon of tourist risk perception.

灾后旅游业恢复重建是灾区经济社会恢复重建的重要“突破口”；而灾害带来的心理影响比有形损毁要持久；了解目的地灾后旅游者心理与行为有利于旅游业恢复重建。本研究综合文献理论回顾与地震影响，提出目的地灾后旅游者风险认知形成、行为影响理论假设概念模型。以1996-2014年间影响四川、云南六次破坏性地震为案例事件；选择2014、2015、2016三年同一时间段测量案例目的地游客与潜在旅游者风险认知及相关变量，构建时空比较数据库。运用跨样本结构方程模型分析法实证检验旅游者风险认知与其形成、行为影响各变量间的交互作用关系；通过多层面定量比较，分析旅游者不同细分市场群体分异，剖析旅游者风险认知及相关变量的变化。研究旨在揭示目的地灾后旅游者风险认知形成及其行为影响的内在规律，明确控制、降低旅游者风险认知途径；提出旅游者风险认知比较视域的目的地灾后旅游业恢复重建管理框架。

旅游者利益是旅游业发展的命脉，旅游者行为反应是影响旅游地灾后恢复重建的关键因素。在综合地震对旅游地旅游业影响的客观实际和相关文献综述理论回顾的基础上，本研究提出目的地“信息-旅游动机-风险感知-地震破坏感知-满意度-行为意向”等三个理论假设概念模型。以1996-2013年间影响四川、云南五次破坏性地震为案例事件；选择2014、2015、2016年不同时期对四川的九寨沟、都江堰、汶川映秀、雅安和云南丽江古城、巴拉格宗的国内旅游者分别进行问卷跟踪调查。构建灾害事件影响目的地的旅游者风险感知数据库。.研究结果分两部分，第一部分验证了：(1)目的地信息影响旅游者风险感知（可能性）；(2)灾害诱导性旅游动机与风险感知(损失）相互弱化的因果关系显著；而旅游推力动机对风险感知（损失）有显著正向影响效应；(3)风险感知(可能性)与风险感知(损失)相互强化的因果关系显著；(4)旅游者推力动机越强、旅游期望水平越高或风险感知（损失）水平越高，旅游者对地震破坏目的地旅游和旅游业的否认态度越强；但旅游者目的地风险感知或风险感知（可能性）水平越高，则对地震破坏目的地旅游和旅游业的否认态度越弱。第二部分获得灾害情境下不同旅游者群体的风险感知与体验评价跨时段变化特征：(1)相比于男性，女性更易受媒体信息影响，旅游推力动机更强，目的地风险感知与旅行担忧水平都整体高于男性，同时对目的地的整体满意水平、重游与推荐意愿都高于男性。(2) 相比于其他年龄段旅游者群体，15-24岁旅游者群体推力动机最强、担忧水平与风险感知水平都是最高；45-64岁旅游者群体则完全相反。(3)相比于其他职业旅游者群体，服务销售商贸人员与工人受“灾害诱导性旅游动机”、公务员中期受目的地名气大、企事业管理人员与学生受目的地自然环境的拉动效应最强。研究揭示目的地灾后旅游者风险认知形成及其行为影响的内在规律，明确控制、降低旅游者风险认知途径；最终根据定量分析结果，研究提出旅游者风险认知比较视域的目的地灾后旅游业恢复重建管理框架。