面向京津冀区域产业协同发展的水土资源优化配置管理研究

Optimal allocation of land and water resources has become the scientific proposition to be solved urgently in the context of China’s new-type urbanization and ecological civilization progress. Complementary industry development plays the key role in synergetic development for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan region. The optimal allocation of land and water resources is not only the powerful guarantee for the industrial transformation and development, but also the effective solution to mitigate resources and environmental stress in this metropolitan region. In this proposed project, we take Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan region as the case study area, and we first investigate the distribution and utilization pattern of land and water resources and development of key industry sectors. Second, based on the extended input-output table with land and water accounts, we identify the key industry sectors and industrial chains of land and water resources consumption from the perspective of supply side, consumption side, and the entire industry chain respectively at the provincial scale. We then simulate the impact of scenario-based industrial transformation pathways in one region on the other regions within the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan region. Furthermore, for the key industry sectors we have identified, we quantatively measure the utilization efficiencies of land and water resources as important inputs, the elasticity of substitution between land and water resources, and the damping effect of land and water resources in the progress of economic development at the county level, which is the major decision-making unit in this project. Finally, combining with the status of resource endowments, we summarize the suitable pathways and policy options for optimal allocation of land and water resources in an integrated way at the county decision-making units for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan region.

水土资源优化配置与在合理布局已成为我国新型城镇化和生态文明建设中亟待解决的现实科学命题。产业错位与互补是京津冀协同发展的重点与先行举措之一，水土资源优化配置与合理布局是产业转型发展的有力保障，亦是破解京津冀区域资源环境胁迫的有效缓解措施。本项目以京津冀区域为研究区，首先，揭示水土资源匹配格局及经济产业发展状况；其次，在省域尺度，基于嵌入水土资源账户的投入产出表，从供给侧、消费侧与全产业链识别水、土资源消耗的关键性产业及产业链，并模拟分析单一区域不同产业调整路径对京津冀范围内其他区域的影响；再次，在县域决策单元上，针对识别出的关键性产业，核算分产业的水土资源要素投入与利用效率、解析水土资源在不同代表性产业的替代弹性、刻画水土资源在不同产业发展中的阻尼效应；最后，结合水土资源禀赋现状，甄别与凝练京津冀区域县域单元上水土资源优化配置与空间合理布局的路径选择与调控建议。

本项目旨在探索水土资源与产业的联系，从水土资源优化配置的角度凝练京津冀区域产业发展的政策建议。在项目执行期内，按照项目任务书，项目团队完成了从实地调研与数据收集整理、水土资源—产业—环境的关系解析、水土资源耦合关系分析与水土资源耦合管理政策的定量评估、空间显性的农业水土资源模拟模型搭建与优化配置方案遴选等全链条的系列研究任务。具体而言，1）“水土资源—产业—环境”的关系解析：编制了拓展水土资源账户的京津冀投入产出表，识别了京津冀区域的关键水土资源消耗产业；并通过链接土地供给数据库、全国工业企业数据库和主要产业水资源消耗及碳排放数据库，分析了土地资源供给的水资源和环境效应，为区域产业结构调整提供了定量化的路径选择。2）农业水土资源耦合关系与影响因素分析：聚焦于农业产业，应用水土资源耦合度和基尼系数两个指标测算了京津冀区域水土资源耦合关系，分析了区域水土资源消耗的时空特征，并进一步应用地理探测器模型对影响水土资源耦合关系的因素进行了定量分析，识别出了该区域农业水土资源不均衡的区域，为该区域农业产业发展中具体化的水土资源利用提出了优化建议。3）农业水土资源利用效率测算与分析：发展了考虑农业土地资源投入质量的效率测算方法，测算了京津冀区域农业水土资源的利用效率，为该区域农业产业发展中水土资源利用潜力和优化布局提供了建议。4）京津冀区域农业水土资源耦合管理策略：针对该区域农业水土资源管理的代表性政策进行了实地调研，应用了PSM-DID方法进行了政策实施成效的定量评估，并根据评估结果的异质性分析创新性地提出了差异化补贴政策，为水土资源耦合管理和生态补偿政策的可持续性提供了建议；同时，基于部门均衡原理，搭建了空间显性的农业水土资源-经济耦合管理模拟平台，为实现区域农业水土资源优化配置和不同情景方案下的拓展应用提供了研究工具。