基于口岸屏蔽效应视角的跨境物流网络演化机理研究—以澜湄合作为例

Planning and construction of cross-border logistics network plays an important role in facilitating the integration of regional, national and international economy. Due to complexity and dynamics of the correlation mechanism between cross-border logistics network system and regional economy, especially the impact of border shielding effect on the evolution of cross-border logistics network exploration have not been studied thoroughly. Firstly, the evaluation methods of border transportation accessibility are proposed based on GIS and space syntax, and the border shielding effect would be analyzed based on an evaluation model. The effect between in Lancang-Mekong Cooperation (LMC) countries is taken as an example. Then an adjacency matrix is built based on complex network theory and methodology, and some extracted characteristics parameters of network statistics are presented. At the same time, the border shielding effect theoretic model is established, and simulation approach is used to simulate the process of border shielding effect transfer within network, in order to analyze the structure of border shielding effect driving force and key indicators, and reveal temporal-spatial evolution mechanism of cross-border logistics network. Finally, a system dynamics model is utilized to simulate the dynamic co-relationship and coupling structure between cross-border logistics network and regional economy, collaborative optimization method of cross-border logistics network and regional economic is proposed, and validated in LMC countries. The results can provide not only theoretical basis for cross-border logistics network planning but also a practical basis for regional economic integration management in the context of LMC.

跨境物流网络的规划建设对于促进我国与周边国家的区域经济一体化具有重要支撑作用。跨境物流网络系统与区域经济的关联机制是动态而复杂的，特别是口岸屏蔽效应作用于跨境物流网络的演化机理尚缺乏深入研究。本项目集成GIS与空间句法评估基于基础交通网络的口岸综合可达性，构造口岸屏蔽效应测度模型，实证分析澜湄国家间口岸屏蔽量化结果及分异特征。然后，基于复杂网络系统理论构造跨境物流网络邻接矩阵，提取网络统计特征参数，构建口岸屏蔽效应模型，采用仿真方法模拟屏蔽效应在网络中的扩散和转移规律，解析口岸屏蔽效应动力结构及关键表征指标，揭示口岸屏蔽作用下的跨境物流网络时空演化机理。最后，基于系统动力学理论对跨境物流网络与区域经济关联机制及耦合效应进行建模仿真，获取跨境物流网络与区域经济协同优化方法，并以澜湄国家为例进行验证。研究结果可为跨境物流网络规划提供理论依据，并为澜湄合作背景下的区域经济一体化管理提供实践基础。

本项目以口岸屏蔽效应对跨境物流网络发展的内在作用和网络动态演化机理为研究目标，运用复杂网络理论、社会网络分析方法、系统动力学理论、运筹优化、演化博弈理论以及仿真计算等方法，初步构建了口岸屏蔽视角下跨境物流网络演化机理研究的理论框架。项目首先基于基础交通网络评估了口岸综合可达性，分析了口岸屏蔽效应产生的原因，构建了口岸屏蔽效应测度模型，完成口岸物流屏蔽效应测算。其次，基于复杂网络系统理论和社会网络分析方法，提取跨境物流网络的分布特征，连接机制，群聚特征，网络密度等关键表征。再次，分析了口岸屏蔽效应扩散和转移的原理，探讨了跨境物流网络拓扑结构的时空变化，提出跨境物流网络流分配模型和算法设计，获取跨境物流网络演化的一般规律。最后，针对跨境物流网络与区域经济协同效应进行建模仿真，阐明跨境物流一体化发展路径。基于提出的理论方法和模型，以澜湄合作国家间跨境物流网络为例进行了实证研究。项目组圆满完成预期目标，发表学术论文13篇，研究成果分别获得中国物流学会优秀课题二等奖2次，三等奖1次；中国铁道学会铁道科技奖三等奖1次。在首届中老国际交通运输发展论坛进行了研究成果介绍，获得参会的中国和老挝学者及跨境物流企业的认可。项目的研究成果为指导我国跨境物流网络规划提供了一定参考，为口岸物流发展和建设提供了决策支持，进一步丰富了物流网络演化理论。