结构调整视角下碳排放演变的特征、机理及政策研究

This project examines the carbon emission evolution with the adjustments of industrial structure and energy structure and the mechanism of the change from the perspective of structural adjustment. We analyze following issues in theory and empirically: .(i)Based on the theory of environmental EKC and industrial economy, with integration of the factors as economic scale, industrial structure, energy structure, trade openness, technical progress etc.,we construct an analysis framework to describe the charateristics of the curve for carbon emission evolution,and use nonlinear modeling methods to analyze empirically the impacts on carbon emission and its smooth transition effects with the variation of structural adjustments..(ii) By using Bayesian analysis, threshold autoregressive model and BP change point detection to estimate multiple change points that exist in industrial structural adjustment series,we present a method of stage division for industrial structural adjustment,and analyze empirically the effects of the adjustments on carbon emission in different stages..(iii)We establish a translog cost function model,estimate the elasticity of energy substitution at regional level, analyze the charateristics of regional industrial structural and energy structure adjustments and put forward the policy suggestions through the structural adjustments to promote the sustainable development of economy based on the empirical results..The potential contributions of this project include that (i)it explores the laws of carbon emission evolution with structural adjustment in the process of economic transformation,it also provides a stage-dividing method based on structural adjustment for the decomposition and analysis of carbon emission.(ii) it also builds scientific foundations for designing and implementing structural adjustment policies to promote carbon emission reduction.

本项目基于结构调整视角，就产业结构和能源结构调整如何影响我国碳排放演变及内在机理进行理论和实证分析。基于环境EKC理论和产业经济理论，综合考虑经济规模、产业结构、能源结构、贸易开放度、技术进步等多因素，构建描述碳排放演变曲线特征的分析框架，采用非线性建模方法实证分析多种结构调整对碳排放演变曲线的影响与平滑转换效应；提出基于产业结构演变的阶段划分方法，采用贝叶斯突变点回归、BP突变点检验和门限自回归等识别产业结构演变的突变点，并进行碳排放的阶段分解分析；建立超越对数成本函数模型，估计区域能源替代弹性，分析区域能源结构与产业结构调整的特征，结合实证结果提出通过结构调整促进经济可持续发展的政策建议。研究成果在理论上揭示了经济转型过程中碳排放随结构调整演变的规律，为碳排放分解分析提供基于结构调整的阶段划分方法，也为结构调整的政策制定及其决策提供科学依据。

在全球应对气候变化进程中，中国碳排放的增长受到了广泛关注。同时，随着中国工业化和城镇化进程的加速，大气污染也成为国内社会关注的焦点。本课题系统研究了产业结构优化升级和能源结构转型如何影响温室气体与大气污染排放。在梳理近年来产业、能源与环境规制等政策基础上，项目组收集整理了宏观、中观和微观层面的相关数据，包括工业2位代码细分行业、省际区域及地级城市以及制造企业的能源消耗、污染排放、资本劳动力投入等数据，以及区域气象数据。聚焦于温室气体与大气污染排放的演变特征与机理，构建了非线性平滑转移模型与非线性时变因子模型，检验了碳排放的演变特征及大气污染排放的俱乐部收敛特征，识别了大气污染的空间因果关系。进一步实证检验了经济结构转型、产业结构调整对温室气体与大气污染减排的引致作用。基于产业与能源经济理论，采用BP突变点检验方法识别了能源消费突变点，对能源消耗及碳排放进行阶段性划分，分析了区域工业全要素能源效率的异质性演变特征及驱动因素。聚焦于能源价格弹性与能源替代弹性，估算及预测工业行业能源替代弹性，分析了区域煤炭需求价格弹性演变的异质性与时变规律，进而评价能源市场化政策的有效性。基于权变理论，实证研究了生产组织方式创新对制造企业经济与环境绩效的影响机理。本课题的研究在理论上揭示了碳排放和大气污染排放随结构调整的演变规律，为碳减排和大气污染减排提供了基于结构调整视角的方法，具有重要的理论意义。特别地，本课题基于中国工业行业、区域及制造企业的数据进行实证研究，丰富了气候变化和环境经济理论，为相关职能部门制定差异化的结构调整政策提供了定量依据，对企业开展可持续实践具有一定的启示。