LCA视角下宏观建筑碳排放结构特性、演化机理及区域化减排机制研究

The UN's International Panel on Climate Change called on governments to step up efforts to curb global warming by reducing emissions of greenhouse gases.Chian is not only the largest developing country, but also the largest producer of carbon emission. And the carbon emissions from construction industry and building have been accounting for the highest. Obviously, reducing emissions of construction industry and building has been becoming critical. The primary objective of the project is to reveal the characteristic of carbon emission from construction industry and building and the sensibility of all reduction measures, establish the long-term mechanism and effective countermeasure for reducing carbon emission form construction industry and building.In doing this, six parts will be analyzed. (1)The combined matrix of influence coefficient of carbon emission and influence coefficient(ICCE/IC Matrix) will be built to propose the industry development theory for low-carbon and sustainability. (2)the model of distribution structure with RPM （Resource Planning Management）of building carbon emission will be set up to display the distribution structure of carbon emissions for all provinces and propose the sustainable and zonal reduction tactics.(3)carbon emission model of macro-building will be set up, which including direct carbon emission of constructon industry, embodied carbon emission of construction industry and carbon emission of existing building in the using stage on the basal of LCA（Life Cycle Assessment）,and then the distribution structure of them will be also analyzed;(4)improving the KAYA equation,the decompositions model of macro-building will be set up to analyze the driving factors of carbon emissions; (5)Vensim software will be adopted to bulit the prediction model of carbon emissin of macro-building, the current situation and the tendency will be simulated, on the premise of reduction goal of macro-building in 2020,the sensitiveness of all countermeasures will be aslo simulated;(6)Based on the analysis above, questionnaire study and interview with expert, the long-term mechanism for carbon emission will be set up and the effective countermeasures will be also propsed.The results of this project will provide theoretical support and practical guidance for reducing carbon emission of construction from China central government to the local department.

量化评价宏观建筑碳排放是低碳建筑策略制定及实施的基础性工作。目前仍存在宏观建筑碳排放的边界、分布结构特性、演化机理及减排长效机制等问题需要解决。本项目从全寿命周期角度，重点解决几个科学问题：提出基于产业影响力系数-产业碳排放影响力系数（ICCE-IC）组合矩阵的产业低碳经济发展理论和基于RPM组合矩阵的碳排放理论；从建筑业直接碳排放、建筑业隐含碳排放、既有建筑运行过程碳排放三层面构建宏观建筑碳排放模型，从能耗种类、气候区域、碳排放类型等揭示建筑碳排放的结构特性；改进KAYA恒等式，构建建筑碳排放因素分解模型，探索建筑碳排放变化动因及演化机理；采用系统动力学，建立建筑碳排放仿真模型，模拟我国建筑碳排放的未来趋势，设定2020年建筑减排目标，模拟各种减排策略敏感度；结合专家访谈、问卷调研等方法，建立包含碳税交易的宏观建筑减排长效机制，系统地提出节能减排策略。因此，具有重要的科学意义和实践价值。

摘要：量化评价宏观建筑能耗及碳排放是低能耗、低碳建筑策略制定及实施的基础性工作。宏观建筑能耗及碳排放的边界、分布结构特性、演化机理和节能减排长效机制等问题亟待解决。本项目首先从宏观层面界定宏观建筑碳排放的基本边界，即国家或者区域层面的建筑业活动带来的能源消耗和碳排放、国家或者区域层面的既有建筑中人类基本活动带来的能源消耗和碳排放、区域层面的不同类型单体建筑全寿命周期的建造运行过程带来的能源消耗和碳排放。在宏观建筑碳排放基础理论与方法的研究基础上，从全生命周期的角度和从宏观层面，本项目构建了建筑业直接碳排放核算模型、隐含碳排放核算模型、ICCE-IC矩阵及分布模型、碳排放因素分解模型、基于DEA及FAA的中国建筑业能效评价模型、既有建筑碳排放核算模型、既有建筑碳排放平均强度等级模型、既有建筑碳排放时空演化模型和建筑全生命周期碳排放核算模型等八个模型。进而分析了建筑业与其他产业的碳排放关联特性和效应；对建筑业碳排放的趋势进行了预测，基于既定减排目标对建筑业及关联产业的减排责任进行了；对建筑业碳排放影响因素进行分解，探索建筑碳排放的变化动因；采用DEA模型及FAA方法对建筑业的碳排放效率进行评价；从既有建筑能耗种类、总体分布、地理空间分布、碳排放结构分布和碳排放时空布局揭示建筑碳排放的结构特性；基于冬暖夏热地区的不同功能类型建筑，从生命周期的视角对它们的碳排放进行比较。在上述理论和数据分析结果的基础上，提出了建筑业减排策略、产业结构调整策略、建筑业区域性减排策略、既有建筑减排策略和夏热冬暖地区不同类型建筑的减排策略。因此，本研究具有重要的科学意义和实践价值。