基于数据融合的重大基础设施项目风险决策动态元网络分析理论与实证研究

Major infrastructure projects have significant economic, social, and environmental impact on the country and region. It is essential to carry out scientific assessment on the risks and the resulting decisions. Previous risk decision making methods are not addressing the strategic, integrated, and complex characteristics of the major infrastructure projects, thus could lead to problematic decision making. Using multiple data capturing and data fusion methods, this research constructs an Dynamic Meta Network Analysis model of risk factors of stakeholders, events and objects, systematically and dynamically reveals the occurrence mechanism of risk events in major infrastructure projects, and builds the project risk decision making model. The research analyzes the main stakeholders in the project lifecycle and their common and conflicting project targets, then identifies the critical risk events that are formed by the manifestation of project target deviations. Based on multiple data capturing and fusion methods, a data base of risk factors of stakeholders, events and objects is built up. The Dynamic Meta Network Analysis model is constructed to evaluates the key risk factors that leads to risk events, and then analyzes the rational risk response and control strategies of the project. The overall risk levels of the project are evaluated by the analytical model under the different scheme combinations of site selection, organization, technology, etc., as the basis for the scheme comparison and decision making. Typical major transport infrastructure projects in China are selected as case studies to validate the feasibility and applicability of the model and the method, and thus supporting the risk decision making of the major infrastructure projects.

重大基础设施项目对国家、地区的经济、社会、环境具有巨大的影响，进行科学的风险评估和决策至关重要。重大基础设施项目具有战略性、集成性、复杂性等特征，以往风险决策方法存在诸多问题。本研究基于多种数据获取及数据融合方法，构建人、事、物风险因素动态元网络分析模型，系统、动态地揭示重大基础设施项目风险事件的发生机理，形成项目风险决策模型。研究分析重大基础设施项目生命周期中主要利益相关方的共同与不同目标，识别因项目目标偏差具体表现形成的风险事件。采用多种方法获取并融合数据，形成人、事、物风险因素数据库。构建动态元网络分析模型，评估导致风险事件发生的关键风险因素，并分析项目风险应对与管控的合理方法。应用分析模型，比较项目在选址、组织、技术等不同组合方案下的整体风险水平，对项目方案进行比选和决策。选取我国典型重大交通基础设施项目作为案例，验证模型方法的可行性与适用性，为重大基础设施项目风险决策提供指导。

重大基础设施项目对国家、地区的经济、社会、环境具有巨大的影响，进行科学的风险评估和决策至关重要。重大基础设施项目具有战略性、集成性、复杂性等特征，以往风险决策方法存在诸多问题。本研究基于多种数据获取及数据融合方法，构建人、事、物风险因素动态元网络分析模型，系统、动态地揭示重大基础设施项目风险事件的发生机理，形成项目风险决策模型。研究分析重大基础设施项目生命周期中主要利益相关方的共同与不同目标，识别因项目目标偏差具体表现形成的风险事件。采用多种方法获取并融合数据，形成人、事、物风险因素数据库。构建动态元网络分析模型，评估导致风险事件发生的关键风险因素，并分析项目风险应对与管控的合理方法。应用分析模型，比较项目在选址、组织、技术等不同组合方案下的整体风险水平，对项目方案进行比选和决策。选取我国典型重大交通基础设施项目作为案例，验证模型方法的可行性与适用性，为重大基础设施项目风险决策提供指导。