生命周期视角下气候变化影响基础设施的风险评估与应对决策方法研究

Climate change increases the uncertainties of nature factors, such as seasonal average temperature, pattern of rain and snow, probability of nature disasters, etc., which generate or enlarge a variety of risks during the life cycle of infrastructure. It is crucial to assess the risks and to provide reasonable response solutions. This research integrates Bayesian Networks method and Real Options theory to develop a comprehensive risk assessment and response decision-making method. In the context of high-speed railway in our country as an example, this research studies the impact mechanism of climate change on infrastructure to reveal the logical causal association between risk factors and risk events. Multi-disciplinary, multi-attribute, and constantly updated data is integrated to assess the risk levels of climate change impacts on infrastructure. Major solutions and multi-stage strategies for responding one or two major risk events are studied. Relevant indicators and parameters are decided by the results of risk assessment. The feedback impacts of different strategies on risk events expectations are analyzed. The risk assessment and response decision-making method is applied for making a best strategy. Thereby climate change risk factors and response solutions are organically connected to provide a basic guide to address climate change risks for infrastructure. Meanwhile one or two typical projects of Shanghai-Hangzhou high-speed railway are studied to validate the feasibility and applicability of the method.

气候变化增加了季节平均气温、降雨降雪规律、灾害发生概率等自然因素的不确定性，产生或增大了基础设施生命周期中的多种风险，合理评估这些风险并提供应对方案至关重要。本研究综合运用贝叶斯网络方法和实物期权理论，构建生命周期视角下气候变化影响基础设施的风险评估与应对决策综合方法。研究以我国高铁为例，分析气候变化对基础设施的影响机理，揭示风险因素与风险事件之间的因果逻辑关联。综合多学科、多属性、不断更新的数据信息，评估气候变化影响基础设施的风险水平。选取一至两类最主要的风险事件，研究应对措施和多阶段应对方案。基于风险评估的结果确定相关指标的参数，分析不同决策方案对风险事件期望值的反馈影响，应用风险评估与应对决策综合方法，做出最佳决策。从而将气候变化风险因素与风险应对解决方案有机联系起来，为指导基础设施应对气候变化风险提供基本方法。同时，选取我国高铁一至两个典型项目作为案例，验证方法的可行性与适用性。

气候变化引起全球气温上升、降雨量增加、极端气候频繁出现、生态环境发生变化等多种现象，对基础设施的建设、运营、维护、改造等阶段存在较为复杂的影响，产生或增大了基础设施生命周期中的多种风险，合理评估这些风险并提供应对方案至关重要。本项目综合运用多种风险分析与决策理论，构建生命周期视角下气候变化影响基础设施的风险评估与应对决策综合方法。本项目首先分析了多学科、多不确定性特点下气候变化影响基础设施生命周期的主要风险和作用机理，对于建筑、公共设施等类型的基础设施受气候变化影响的特点和因素进行分析，探索基于贝叶斯网络方法的风险评估模型，提供定量的风险评估方法。其次，构建风险应对决策模型，分析大体量、多阶段、长时间跨度、多选择方案特点下基础设施应对气候变化风险的合理策略和决策过程，提供基于数学规划、保险、投入产出模型、一般均衡模型、实物期权等理论多种定量的风险应对决策方法。在前两项研究的基础上，整合风险评估与应对决策模型，建立生命周期视角下气候变化影响基础设施的风险评估与应对决策综合模型，将分析气候变化风险与提供解决方案有机联系起来，作为指导基础设施应对气候变化风险的基本方法。同时，本项目还对如何促进基础设施、建筑的节能减排的管理和决策方法做了相应的研究。最后，本项目选取交通基础设施中的高速公路作为案例进行实证分析，验证风险评估与应对决策综合模型的可行性与适用性，为适应气候变化背景下的基础设施发展决策提供理论方法与实践指导。.本项目共形成成果16项，其中英文期刊论文11 篇（10 篇发表在SCI/SSCI 源刊，WOS数据库中被引数共37次，其中1篇被录入ESI高被引论文），中文期刊论文2篇，ISTP检索会议论文2篇，专著1部。