重大工程项目风险识别、度量与控制的理论与方法研究

Consisting of a number of interactive agents, a mega construction project is a complex system, whose inner structure is characterized by dynamic evolution, and external environment is full of uncertainty. Such complexity leads to the dynamic coupling effects among the risk factors, and the interactions among agents result in the butterfly effect when the risks proliferate in the system. We focus our attention on mega construction projects in China and will conduct research into risks from the perspective of complex system.The research will explore the interaction mechanism among risk factors in China's context, find the influence of environment's complexity on the interaction mechanism among risk factors, and suggest a new method for the identification of risk factors. The research will study into the agents' risk perception, multi-objective conflicts and contract network, and figure out how they integrated to influence the agents' risk decision-making behaviors. An arithmetic simulation platform will be built for mega construction projects, to uncover risk transmission pattens and complexity evolution mechanism in mega construction project system. Based on the simulation result, a new method for risk measurement will be put forward. By applying the contract theory, a new method for risk control in mega construction projects will be proposed. Last but not least, the research team will conduct an empirical study on the Trans-Asia Gas Pipeline project, to validate our research results. The research findings will enrich and improve the current body of knowledge about risk complexity evolution mechanism in mega construction projects, and provide rigid tools in risk management research and practice.

重大工程项目是由大量交互的参与主体组成、组织结构具有动态演化性、所处环境具有高度不确定性的复杂系统，其风险因素存在动态耦合效应，主体间交互作用导致风险在系统内传导并产生风险蝴蝶效应。本项目拟以我国重大工程项目为研究对象，从复杂系统视角对其风险进行研究。探究中国情境下重大工程项目风险因素间的相互作用机理，揭示环境复杂性对风险因素间相互作用关系的影响，提出风险因素识别新方法。揭示参与主体的风险感知、多目标冲突及合约网络对其风险决策行为的影响机理；构建重大工程项目风险计算仿真平台，进而揭示其风险传导机理及复杂演化规律，提出基于涌现的风险度量新方法。最终，提出基于合约治理的风险控制新方法，结合国家重大工程项目中亚管道进行实证研究，验证研究结果。本项目研究成果将深化对重大工程项目风险复杂演化规律的科学认识，为提高其风险管理水平提供坚实的科学思想和技术手段，推动风险管理与复杂性科学交叉学科的前沿发展。

重大工程项目是由大量交互的参与主体组成、组织结构具有动态演化性、所处环境具有高度不确定性的复杂系统，其风险因素存在动态耦合效应，参与主体间交互作用导致风险在系统内传导并产生风险蝴蝶效应。本项目以我国重大工程项目为研究对象，从复杂系统视角对其风险分担、参与主体的合同关系及行为进行研究。本项目提出了重大工程项目风险因素识别新方法，初步构建了重大工程项目风险计算仿真平台数据库,由此揭示了重大工程项目系统中风险传导机理及其复杂演化规律；揭示了项目参与主体风险态度、风险感知对风险决策行为的影响机理；探究了在重大工程项目合约网络下参与主体的行为风险治理方式，重点关注合约对行为风险的治理及其边际条件；并研究了重大工程项目实施过程中风险再分配及谈判策略。研究期间，课题组共发表63篇与课题直接相关的学术论文，其中42篇国际期刊论文、8篇基金委界定的国内A类期刊论文、4篇基金委界定的B类期刊论文以及9篇其他国内核心期刊论文。课题成果中有34篇被SCI检索的已发表/录用论文，6篇被EI检索的已发表论文。本项目研究成果深化了对重大工程项目风险复杂演化规律与合约网络设计及各方行为规律的科学认识，为提高重大工程项目风险管理水平提供坚实的理论基础和方法。