考虑在线评论与消费者网络化决策行为的零售商预售策略研究

With the high-speed development of network medium and transmission mode, consumer network shifts from offline to online，and consumers also transfer from passive information recipients to product information disseminators. Based on other consumers’ disseminating information, consumers optimize their shopping decisions. The decision-making behavior becomes a network decision-making behavior instead of an independent act. At the same time, the emergence of various online commentary platforms has led to increasingly close interaction and significantly enhanced decision-making dependency among consumers as well as online retailers. Faced with ever-changing market demand, grasping the impact of online word of mouth and consumer network decision-making behavior on advance selling strategies and guiding the consumer choice behavior to obtain maximum profits have become the key issue to the online retailers’ advance selling policy. From the perspective of online word of mouth and consumer network decision-making behavior，this project combines the characteristics of online platform and investigates the advance selling strategies for online retailers. The main research contents of the project include the issues about the optimal advance selling strategies by considering the word of mouth, the pricing issues of online retailers with consideration of the consumer network decision-making behavior, and the decision-making mechanism issues of online retailers based on cross-cutting influence of consumer network decision-making behavior and online comments. The project intends to enrich and improve the extant theory and research methods in the area of advance selling management, and also provide the online retailers in reality with valuable suggestions in making advance selling decisions.

网络新兴媒介的勃兴和传播路径的激增使得消费者网络从线下转移到线上，消费者也由被动的信息接受者转换为产品信息的传播者。消费者根据其他消费者传播的信息优化购物决策，其决策不再是独立行为，而是呈现网络化决策行为。与此同时，各种在线评论平台的涌现使得消费者之间以及消费者与零售商之间的信息互动日益密切，决策依赖显著增强。面对瞬息万变的市场需求，了解在线评论与消费者网络化决策行为对预售策略的影响机制，引导消费者的选择行为获取最大化收益，成为广大零售商预售决策的关键问题。本课题从在线评论与消费者网络化决策行为的视角，结合网络平台特征研究网络零售商的产品预售决策问题。课题主要研究内容包括考虑在线评论的零售商预售决策问题；消费者网络化决策行为下的零售商预售策略；考虑消费者网络化决策行为与在线评论交叉影响下的零售商的预售策略。课题旨在丰富和完善预售管理理论方法，同时为网络零售商预售管理决策提供重要参考依据。

网络平台预售模式下，市场需求规模及其分布特性分析不能局限于数据统计，还需考虑在线评论、消费者网络化决策行为、消费者策略性选择行为以及不同阶段需求之间的动态关联性。基于上述背景，本项目以电商平台上网络零售商的产品预售决策问题为对象，建立了零售商预售定价决策和产品质量决策的数学模型，研究发现考虑单个零售商时，线性在线评论（口碑）效应情形下，当该效应为正向影响且较为温和时，零售商会设定较高水平的预售价格以引导策略型消费者等待至正常销售阶段购买产品。此外，零售商在预售期初期的最优订购量可能会随着在线评论效应负向影响的增强而增加，而随着策略型消费者数量占比的增加而下降。当在线评论效应为凸二次函数形式时，该情形下零售商期初的最优订购量是关于策略型消费者数量的凸函数。在两个零售商的竞争格局下，对于低声誉零售商，当市场中在线评论效应较大时，该零售商降低其预售价格比较有利；而对于高声誉零售商，当市场中在线评论效应较大，且市场中消费者对其产品热衷程度较高时，该零售商同样应降低其预售价格，否则，高声誉零售商就不能选择降低售价，此外，当两个垄断型零售商的竞争异常激烈时（两个零售商的声誉差别极小），对于低声誉零售商而言，随着市场中消费者对其产品估值的增大，亦不能盲目提高其预售价格。这一点有别于直观的认知和理解，以上研究结论为企业决策者在预售策略的设计提供有了一定的参考价值。