电力调度机制改革红利的评估模型及分配方法研究

Reforming the dispatch mechanism is an important approach to improve electricity system's operating efficiency, which is also a key measure for promoting the National Energy Production and Consumption Revolution Strategy (NEPCRS). However, conducting the dispatch reform is a complex issue, because it is associated with many stakeholders and has widespread impacts. In order to strengthen the stakeholders’ confidences and reduce the resistances, it is necessary to establish scientific models to estimate the reform bonuses and design reasonable allocation mechanisms. Therefore, econometric regression methods will first be used to reveal the law of demand side response, and optimization models will be established to obtain the power operation results after the dispatch reform. Then, an evaluation model of the reform bonuses will be constructed for the coupled power system and socio-economic system, which integrates the cost-benefit analysis method and input-output theory. After that, Shapley's value method will be adopted to establish the benefits allocation mechanism on the spatial dimension, while Raiffa's ruling approach will be utilized to design the benefits allocation mechanism on the dimension of power system composition. At last, taking the Chinese power dispatch reform as an empirical research object, implementation strategies of the reform will be analyzed from aspects of planning, promotion and risk management. This project’s research outputs will expand the theory and methodology in the research field of electricity market reform. They can also provide scientific basis and decision support for the successful implementation of the reform.

调度机制改革是提升电力系统运行效率的重要突破口，也是推进国家能源生产和消费革命战略的关键着力点。然而，改革实施复杂程度高、影响主体多和覆盖层面广，为了坚定改革主体信心和减少改革阻力，需要构建科学的改革红利评估模型和公平合理的红利分配方法。为此，本项目将首先基于计量经济学方法揭示调度机制改革下的需求侧响应规律，并建立用于重构改革后电力系统运行结果的优化模型；其次，综合运用成本效益分析方法和投入产出理论，构建耦合电力系统和社会经济系统的改革红利评估方法；再次，利用Shapley值和Raiffa裁决方法，分别在空间维度和电力系统构成维度上建立多主体合作博弈下的改革红利分配机制设计方法；最后，开展中国电力调度机制改革的应用研究，并从总体规划、宣传推广和风险防控等领域分析改革的推进策略。本项目将拓展电力市场化改革的建模理论与方法，并为改革的成功实施提供科学依据和决策支撑。

电力调度机制改革将优化电力系统的资源配置方式，提高电力系统的运行效率。然而，电力调度机制改革的复杂程度高、影响主体多和覆盖层面广，改革带来的利益再分配问题将引发不同主体间的博弈冲突。因此，为了增加不同主体参与改革的积极性和动力，需要准确评估并科学分配改革红利，以保障电力调度机制改革的顺利实施。本项目立足管理科学前沿，以电力调度机制改革红利的评估与分配为研究对象，采用管理学、经济学、统计学和系统科学等学科交叉和综合集成途径，在解析调度机制改革下电力系统运行重构的规律基础上，识别了改革红利的产生来源与形成路径，建立了电力调度机制改革红利的评估模型，提出了多主体合作博弈下的改革红利分配方法，最后分析了电力调度机制改革的推进策略。通过项目研究工作，在The Energy Journal、Energy Economics和Energy Policy等领域内知名期刊上发表SCI/SSCI论文15篇，培养了多名研究生，研究成果加深了对新一轮电力市场化改革中发用电计划改革成本效益的认识，为改革的总体规划、推进策略和风险防控提供了决策参考和科学依据。