电力市场改革对我国电力行业温室气体排放及治理的影响机制研究

China's electricity reform can fundamentally affect its greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions. China plans to develop a cost-bidding based wholesale electricity market to replace the current centrally-planned electricity economy. Currently, the government determines each generator’s annual generation quota and associated rate, which is flat over hours. After the reform, both the suppliers and consumers can bid in the market. The transition from a centrally-planned economy towards a competitive market will reshuffle the market-share distributions over generators with heterogeneous carbon efficiencies. Thus, this economic transition in the electricity sector has the capability to directly change China’s GHG emissions from the electricity generation. Further, the market reform can affect the effectiveness of China’s current mechanisms for the GHG governance. The current mechanisms for the GHG governance in China’s electricity sectors are developed to adapt the centrally-planned institution. Those machines are designed to effectively abate the GHGs in the centrally-planned electricity economy. When the economic institutional transition happens, the regulated power plants may lose their market shares or have the new strategies to respond to the GHG governances. Thus, the effectiveness of the current GHG governances may vary. This research will examine the effectiveness changes of those governances and examine whether the current GHG governances match with the bidding-based electricity market. Further, the simulation experiments will be designed to clarify how the market conditions, designs, and technology availabilities affect the relation between China’s electricity reform and the system GHG emissions. According to the results, we will propose policy suggestions for the electricity-market designs and GHG-governance reform.

电力市场改革将用市场化电力经济体制代替现行的计划发电体制，这将从根本上改变电力经济的运行机制。由于电力行业是我国主要的温室气体排放部门，因此研究这一改革对碳排放的影响机制，对改革路径设计和我国碳排放治理都有现实意义。本研究分别在计划发电和电力市场两种情景下，对电力经济运行进行研究和建模。解析改革影响发电厂微观碳排放行为的机制；研究改革造成的电力调度调整以及供求均衡形成机制的改变，并分析这些调整和改变造成的碳排放后果，从中分析出改革对我国碳排放的直接影响机制。本研究还将从现行碳减排政策中提炼出我国的碳治理机制；并分析改革后，这些碳治理机制的绩效变化。从而刻画出改革对碳排放的间接影响路径，甄别现行碳治理机制和市场化电力经济的适配性。在理论分析的基础上，通过仿真模拟实验，识别出决定电力改革是否会对碳排放造成显著影响的关键因素，研究改革在不同省份造成的碳排放影响及其差异，并提出相应的政策建议。

电力市场改革是我国深化改革和实现经济高质量发展的重要举措。随着电力经济从计划发电体制转向市场化电力经济体制，电力经济的运行机制正在根本性改变。本研究系统分析了电改对我国温室气体排放的影响及其机制。由于电力行业是我国主要的温室气体排放部门，因此本研究对转型国家碳排放形成机制、改革路径设计和碳排放治理都有现实意义。本研究逐次分析了电改对企业微观行为和电力系统调度的影响，自下而上的刻画了电改影响碳排放的机制。在微观行为方面，本研究发现，电改重构了供求均衡形成机制和定价机制，从而改变了发电企业的生产和投资决策，也改变了需求侧的储能运行等决策。在电力系统调度方面，本研究构建了电改前后的电力调度模型，发现了电改通过改变调度模式改变供求均衡机制、从而影响碳排放后果的机制链条。通过对计划体制和市场经济下不同电力运行模式的建模和比较研究，本研究发现，与计划发电体制相比，电力经济体制具有显著的碳减排效果：电改可以将中国电力的碳强度降低10%左右。电改能显著降低碳排放的原因主要有三个：一是计划发电体制过度分配了高碳密集型发电机的市场份额；二是由于燃煤发电和可再生能源的快速增加，导致我国平均容量因子下降，放大了计划体制对市场的扭曲；三是燃煤机组碳强度差异较大，计划发电体制的无效市场份额分配会导致碳排放量大幅增加。本研究进一步分析了电改对我国低碳政策影响，提出了低碳政策和电改进程的适配性概念。本研究发现电改能根本性的影响低碳政策的减排效率：现有的机组改造和煤改气等政策将在改革后很大程度上失去减排能力。相反，碳税和碳交易等政策，则能在改革前后都保持较稳健的减排效率。在理论分析的基础上，本研究通过仿真模拟实验，证实了电改是一种具有环境和经济双重红利的低碳改革。我国未来的碳足迹很大程度上取决于电改进展：电改进程快慢，会给未来十年累计碳排放造成出国20亿吨的差异。