复杂性视角下民生系统的综合评价研究——以江西为例

With the rapid development of economic society in China, the issue of people’s livelihood has been highlighted. The social stability and sustainable development of economy urgently require the people’s livelihood to have a clear and explicit political boundary. thus the traditional evaluation of people’s livelihood mostly stays on the preliminary stage of exploration of qualitative description and quantitative evaluation. This project involves regionally realistic issue of people’s livelihood, starts from the perspective of system theory, applies the advantage of inter-discipline and establishes multilevel systematic evaluation mechanism and method of people’s livelihood. On the basis of constructing the people's livelihood system, it introduces the relationship between system and coordination, which is more conductive to describing the current conditions of people’s livelihood of all regions and levels and differentiating the requirements to construct people’s livelihood index system under different economic society and environmental states. At the same time, the project is introduced based on the operational research, management science and mathematical economics a crossover study of efficiency evaluation method, the livelihood systems under environmental constraints input output efficiency index system design based on, combined with of the CCR and SBM and EBM three model calculation results are compared, to verify the robustness of EBM model results, at the same time, the use of regional data in Jiangxi Province, further analysis based on non expected outputs, radial mixing EBM model people's livelihood system environment efficiency. According to the results presented considering environmental constraints the development of people's livelihood policy recommendations.

随着我国经济社会的快速发展，民生问题凸显，社会的稳定和经济的可持续发展亟需民生问题有一个清晰和显性的政策界限。传统的民生问题的评估大部分仅仅停留在定性描述和定量评价的初步探索阶段。本项目研究涉及了区域现实民生问题，从系统理论方法的视角出发，应用交叉学科的优势，建立民生多层次系统评价体系与方法，在构建民生体系上，引入系统协调的关系，更有利于描述各区域、层级民生状态和区分不同经济社会、环境状态下民生指标体系的构建要求。同时，本项目引入基于运筹学、管理科学和数理经济学一个交叉研究的效率评价方法，本研究基于民生系统在环境约束下投入产出效率指标体系设计，结合对CCR、SBM和EBM三种模型的测算结果进行比较分析，验证EBM模型结果的稳健性，同时，利用江西省区域数据，进一步深入分析基于非期望产出的、混合径向EBM模型民生系统环境效率。根据结果提出考虑环境约束的民生发展政策建议。

民生问题关系到社会经济发展的方方面面，是一项复杂的系统工程，民生指标评价体系是对民生问题实施系统研究的重要基础。本项目构建了兼顾公平与效率的民生发展核心、驱动力、基础和纽带力4个子系统，并引用两种区间优先算子，将组合构权法应用到民生系统的协调性模型体系构建和评价当中，采用非期望产出的SBM和EBM模型进行民生系统效率对比分析，验证EBM模型结果的稳健性。同时，利用江西省区域数据，进一步深入分析基于非期望产出的、混合径向EBM模型民生系统环境效率，实现区域民生复杂系统的稳定性、协调性和可持续性。.关于民生系统理论，从供需的视角得到民生产品的供给和需求最理想的均衡是差异化的民生供给恰好满足差异化的民生需求，丰富的民生供给有效满足多层次、多样的民生需求。.关于民生系统评价，利用民生系统多层次综合评价体系以及与此相吻合的技术方法，对民生发展排名从总体，区域，局部等视角进行归纳、比较、分析，发现虽然江西省民生综合总指数稳步提高，近几年已超过全国平均水平，但与东部地区的差距还很大，各子系统的指数发展不均衡，强弱不一。.关于民生系统效率，将投入指标设为“民生投入资金量”，产出指标从就业、消费、文化教育、健康医疗、社会保障等方面选取代表性产出指标，结果显示江西省大部分年份的民生效率值都是1，说明省政府的民生资金投入对于各方面的投入是合理有效的，为我国构建绿色、优化的民生体系提供有价值的参考。