亚热带湿地水域水华形成及演变的生态动力学模型研究

At present, the phenomenon of algal bloom in subtropical wetland is frequent in China, which has serious harm to the wetland ecosystem. Therefore, the algal bloom has become one of the increasingly serious water environment problems. This project mainly focuses on the formation and evolution of algal bloom in subtropical wetland and selects Wenzhou Sanyang wetland as researched sample. Relying on the method of combining field data survey、Laboratory algal bloom induced simulation test and wetland ecological dynamic model simulation, based on the concept of dynamic coordination control of positive and negative entropy flow-positive and negative feedback mechanism, wetland ecosystem dynamic new models which are most consistent with algae population growth dynamic change law will be structured, the key ecological factors that can induce the formation of algal bloom will be analyzed, the driving mechanism of ecological factors to the formation and evolution process of algal bloom will be explored, The intrinsic nature of the formation and evolution dynamics of algal bloom in subtropical wetland waters will be clarified. The project is expected to propose a series of modeling techniques、analytical methods and simulation algorithms for the formation and evolution of algal bloom in subtropical wetland waters, and reveal dynamic mechanism of the formation and evolution of algal bloom. The findings of the project can provide scientific theoretical basis and technical support for early prediction and warning of algal bloom in subtropical wetland and some important decision support for sustainable development and utilization of the subtropical wetland ecosystem.

目前，我国亚热带湿地水域水华频发，对湿地生态系统产生了严重危害，水华问题已成为日趋严重的水环境问题之一。本项目针对亚热带湿地水域水华形成及演变规律，选取温州三垟湿地水域为样本，采用野外数据调查、实验室水华诱发模拟试验和生态动力学模型模拟相结合的方法，基于“正负熵流—正负反馈机制的动态协同控制”概念，构建更符合浮游藻类种群增长动态变化规律的湿地生态系统动力学新模型，解析诱发水华形成的关键生态因子，探索关键生态因子对水华形成及演变过程的驱动机理，阐明亚热带湿地水域浮游藻类水华形成及演变动力学的内在本质规律。项目预期将提出系列亚热带湿地水域水华形成及演变生态动力学模型的构建技术、分析方法和模拟算法，揭示水华形成及演变的动力学机理。项目研究成果为亚热带湿地水域水华预测预警及生态系统可持续开发利用提供科学依据和技术支持。

目前，我国亚热带湿地水域水体富营养化还是比较严重，对湿地生态系统产生比较危害的生态环境问题，已成为日趋严重的湿地水环境问题之一。依托温州三垟湿地野外监测数据，基于正负熵流-正负反馈机制的动态协同控制设计，本项目首先引入各类生态环境因子，构建以微分动力系统为基础的部分生态系统动力学新模型，解析出模型发生特定动力学行为的阈值条件，特别是模型发生分岔动力学的临界条件。其次，对模型进行动态数值仿真试验，阐明各类生态环境因子对藻类种群增长的影响作用，动态演示藻类种群与其它种群间的动态关系，发现藻类种群增长动力学的内在本质规律（跨临界分岔—鞍结分岔—Hopf分岔、跨临界分岔—鞍结分岔、跨临界分岔—Hopf分岔、跨临界分岔—鞍结分岔—Hopf分岔—B-T分岔），阐释藻类种群与其它种群的生长共存模式（平衡态共存模式、平衡稳态共存模式、周期振荡共存模式）。最后，探索藻类聚集行为、生态环境因子的不确定等因素对藻类水华形成的驱动影响机理，从分岔动力学的角度揭示了亚热带湿地水域藻类水华形成及演变机理。研究结果提出一套符合藻类种群增长规律的湿地生态系统动力学新模型的构建技术、分析方法和模拟算法，可为深入研究亚热带湿地水域生态运行规律和藻类水华形成及时空演变提供一定的科学理论依据，为湿地生态系统生态恢复和可持续开发利用政策制定提供较全面的理论与数据支撑。此外，其部分研究成果已应用到南太湖藻类水华控制方面，为“温大碧晟号”蓝藻水华物理喷射处理船的处理机理提供了一定的理论基础。