经常项目失衡、跨境资本流动和金融脆弱性研究

Nowadays keeping macroeconomic and financial stability is highly relevant for the policy-makers around the world. The process of economic and financial globalization manifests itself in steadily rising the accumulation of large current account imbalances and cross-border capital flows. Based on the economic theories and stylised facts, the current account imbalance and cross-border capital flows movements is linked with the financial fragility, and their economic effects and the interactions become even stronger with the background of globalization...In this project, we analyze the external imbalances adjustment process and its effect on the financial fragility cosidering the waves of large cross-border capital flows. From the viewpoint of the technical anylysis, based on the international macroeconomic dynamics, we consider the recent development of Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium models, and extend the benchmark model of financial fragility. Our empirical research will give the details of stylised facts and influecial factors of the current account imbalances and cross-border capital flows. Finally, we will find the implications for economic policies.

当前，全球范围内各国政府政策制定者们都面临着保持宏观经济和金融稳定的严峻挑战。基于理论预测和现实经验，经常项目失衡、跨境资本流动是引发金融脆弱性的重要影响因素，而且在经济全球化背景下这种影响作用和交互作用更加突显。. 本项课题将深入探讨跨境资本流动不断动荡变化的背景下经常项目失衡对金融脆弱性的深刻影响。在技术层面，本项课题基于国际宏观经济动态学的理论基础，借鉴动态随机总体均衡模型（DSGE）最新进展，对金融脆弱性的基准理论模型进行拓展，将其用于经常项目失衡对金融脆弱性影响的理论分析以及数值模拟；同时运用大样本宏观经济数据以及微观企业数据对经常项目失衡、跨境资本流动进行典型化事实归纳以及计量分析，为分析二者影响金融脆弱性的机理提供经验支持；最后，在上述研究基础上给出相关政策启示。

对于全球经常项目失衡问题及其对宏观经济影响来说，现有成熟的理论框架还不能够很好地解决问题。处于全球经常项目失衡的美国，像这样的“大国经济”处于内外失衡状态应用“小国经济”假定所得到的基本结论和政策建议显然不具备很好的适用性。同样，针对处于内外失衡的中国经济而言，现有基准理论研究框架也面临着挑战。同时，经常项目失衡与跨境资本流动的总量变化以及不同国家或地区的金融脆弱性之间相互关联。本项研究在上述背景下着眼于全球经常项目失衡、跨境资本流动以及金融脆弱性问题进行深入研究。主要研究成果体现在：提供了审慎的宏观经济风险监控的核心变量经验研究确定的方法和依据；针对全球经济进行监控的数据集构建完毕并能够依据现有数据库及时进行更新。