引入不透明销售机制的收益管理模型研究

The network market environment has given rise to a new revenue management tool — opaque selling. In current research, this new tool is only used to sell leftover capacity. It is isolated with the traditional revenue management methods such as capacity control and dynamic pricing. As a result, these researches cannot get the system optimization. In this research, we will integrate the opaque selling strategy and the traditional revenue management methods to obtain globally optimal decisions, which are based on the study of customer behavior rules. Firstly, we will use the prospect theory to examine customer purchasing behavior with typical industry background, and use empirical and experimental research methods to construct the customer utility measurement system and obtain the customer decision model with multiple reference points. Secondly, we will construct a series of decision models from perspective of service providers. We will take the classical EMSR model and GVR model for theory references, use optimal control and stochastic dynamic programming methods as optimization tools, and use mathematical deduction and numerical simulation research methods to construct and analyze the revenue management models with opaque selling mechanism. These models are to solve the new decision problems: When to introduce the opaque product? How to allocate capacity for general and opaque products? How to set prices for them? This research has important theoretical and practical significance in revealing customer responsive rules and helping service providers obtain new decision mechanisms and optimal strategies in revenue management.

网络市场环境催生了一种新的收益管理工具——不透明销售。现有研究仅将不透明销售作为处理剩余存量的工具，与存量控制、动态定价等传统收益管理方法是相互分割的决策，无法获得全局优化。本研究将在提取顾客决策规则的基础上，探索不透明销售与传统收益管理方法的集成优化决策。首先，在典型行业背景下，运用前景理论的分析框架和实证、实验的研究手段，探索不透明销售机制下顾客效用度量方法，建立基于多属性参考点的顾客选择模型；而后，从服务商的决策视角，以EMSR、GVR等经典模型为理论参照，借助最优控制、随机动态规划等工具，采用数理推演和数值仿真相结合的研究手段，构建并分析引入不透明销售机制的收益管理系列模型，解决不透明产品导入时机的动态判断、不透明产品和普通产品联合存量分配、联合动态定价等决策问题。研究结论对于揭示新环境下的顾客响应规律并据此获取新的收益管理决策机制和优化策略有着重要的学术价值和现实意义。

在四年项目执行期内，我们本着立项目的、预期目标和国家自然科学基金委提倡的原则开展工作，按预定计划完成了研究任务。本项目全面系统地研究了引入不透明销售机制的收益管理决策问题，在以下三个方面做出了学术贡献。第一，提取不透明销售机制下消费者购买选择行为特征，构建消费者效用度量函数和选择模型；第二，提出不透明销售机制下存量分配方法和算法；第三，在纵向/横向差异化不透明产品与普通产品的联合定价决策方面获得进展和突破。理论成果方面，本项目已出版专著1本，发表19篇期刊论文。其中，在国家自科基金委管理学部指定的中文权威期刊发表论文6篇；英文论文发表在EJOR、IJPE、IJPR等国际权威期刊上，其中SSCI期刊论文4篇，SCI期刊论文5篇。在应用方面，本项目的研究成果能够为民航、酒店、网络零售等行业的商业实施提供直接性指导和支持。在学术交流方面，参加学术会议26人次；邀请海外专家10人次来项目组授课、指导或合作研究。在人才培养方面，依托本项目培养了2名博士生（已毕业）、6名硕士生（3名已毕业）和18名参加科研训练（包括1项国家级和1项省级本科科研训练项目）的本科生。