建成环境对轨道通勤方式链的作用机理与小汽车转移调控

A restructuring in built environment is undergoing around stations along rail lines, whose land use patterns are usually spatially compacted. How to upgrade built environment is key to the reshaping of commuters' travel behavior. In order to understand how the positive upgrading in built environment affects the efficiency in rail usage and promotes on modal shifts from car driving in a long term, the study develops a technical framework in 4 steps: First, data collection on trip chain of rail commuting and built environment; second, the exploration on mechanism that links built environment to rail trip chain; third, the threshold analysis for key elements identification on car commuters’ shift; fourth, the scenario test both for car shift control and built environment optimization. This study obtains data from different sources such as the travel survey, travelers’ trajectory, ArcGIS and POI. With the application of the Bayesian multilevel modeling method with probit, we explore the impact of both access and egress built environment on the commuting trip chain of rail transit and identify the specific built environment elements that improve the rail usage in different trip chain types. Based on item response theory, a Rasch model is established to explore the potential of car commuters shift to rail transit and thresholds are extracted to determine the important built environments. Multi-agent simulation is serving for the scenario test, where an optimal set of parameters that quantify the control effects on car usage and optimize built environment are obtained. This study aims to establish a comprehensive framework that includes scientific theory basis and practical methods, from which reasonable parameters on built environment could be derived to effectively enhance the efficiency of rail commuting and guide more commuters to shift from car driving.

聚焦轨道交通站点沿线空间集约利用背景下建成环境更新改造对轨道通勤效率提升及小汽车转移的长效影响机制，采用“轨道通勤方式链及建成环境数据获取-建成环境对轨道通勤方式链作用机理解析-小汽车转移关键要素阈值提取-小汽车转移调控与建成环境优化配置效果测试”的总体技术路线展开研究。综合运用出行调查、轨迹数据、ArcGIS、POI数据等分析轨道通勤方式链和相关建成环境特征，建立同步解析职住两端建成环境对轨道通勤方式链作用的贝叶斯分层probit模型，进而甄别影响不同轨道方式链吸引力提升的建成环境细分要素。基于项目反应理论建立小汽车通勤向轨道方式链转移的Rasch模型，提取推动小汽车转移的关键建成环境要素阈值，运用多智能体仿真进行轨道沿线小汽车转移调控与建成环境参数优化配置的多情景实证测试。预期成果为合理配置建成环境参数-提升轨道全过程通勤效率-引导出行行为-吸引小汽车转移提供科学的理论依据和分析方法。

项目聚焦轨道交通站点沿线空间集约利用背景下建成环境更新改造 对轨道通勤 效率提升及小汽车转移 的长效影响机制，采用“轨道通勤方式链及建成环境数据获取-建成环境对轨道通勤方式链作用机理解析-小汽车转移关键要素阈值提取 -小汽车转移调控与建成环境优化配置 效果测试”的总体技术路线展开研究。基于建成环境“5Ds”要素指标，计算职住两端人口分布密度、引用混合熵指数 表征土地利用混合度 、使用路网密度和交叉口数量等表征交通网络特性等城市建成环境。采用漂移幂律 模型对不同时间城市轨道交通网络OD客流进行拟合，对不同时间、不同时段的社群结构进行对比，研究轨道交通客流及接驳出行 特征。利用多项logistic回归模型对站点聚类和土地利用进行分析，建立混合地理加权 等多种全局回归模型和局部回归模型揭示城市土地利用等建成环境变量与城市轨道交通站点日客流模式的关系。综合运用出行调查、轨迹数据、ArcGIS、POI数据等分析轨道通勤方式链和相关建成环境特征，针对城市轨道交通接驳中的接驳方式选择和接驳距离两项因素，分别构建随机参数logistic模型和随机参数负二项模型，探索在控制住个人家庭属性和出行属性后，主观建成环境感知变量和客观建成环境属性对接驳方式选择和接驳距离的影响，同时模型还揭示了存在个体异质性 的自变量影响。基于项目反应理论 建立小汽车通勤向轨道方式链转移的Rasch模型，分析轨道交通乘客对接入接出 设施满意度和小汽车用户向轨道交通转移意向，获取小汽车向轨道交通转移的影响因素及个人属性对方式转移的影响。建立方式选择模型得到影响通勤方式转移的建成环境关键要素，并利用阈值面法对这些建成环境要素提取阈值。运用多智能体仿真进行轨道沿线小汽车转移调控与建成环境参数优化配置的多情景实证测试。通过南京市建成环境与轨道交通客流的多情景实证研究，预期成果为合理配置建成环境参数-提升轨道全过程通勤效率-引导 出行行为-吸引 小汽车转移提供科学的理论依据和分析方法。