中华民族基因多样性、文化交融和技术创新：中国经济持续发展的深层次影响机制的理论与实证研究

Genetic distance contains population’s cultural characteristics such as beliefs, traditions, preferences and customs, and reflects the regional ethnic heterogeneity. can be reflected by the genetic diversity of the local population. genetic diversity characterizes the cultural blending brought by the communication among different ethnic groups in China. Therefore, through analyzing the genetic diversity in China, this project can analyze the influence mechanism of the ultimate, deep-rooted factors of the Chinese nation on China's economic development in addition to some important growth factors such as production factors and human capital. Based on the "Gene-culture co-evolution" theory (Gintis, 2011) and the "Out of Africa" hypothesis of comparative development (Ashraf and Galor, 2013), this study establishes a theoretical model to explore how cultural integration promote the sustainable development of China's economy through technological innovation. In addition, based on several datasets of gene frequency such as Chinese Genetic Map, the database of genetic diversity at the provincial-level and city-level is constructed to match the technical innovation dataset at the provincial and city-level, and the impact of genetic diversity on technological innovation was empirically analyzed. thus, this paper empirically analyzes the impact of genetic diversity on technological innovation and various channels of technological innovation to promote sustainable economic development in China are discussed from the perspective of cultural integration. This paper provides theoretical support for promoting the steady economic development driven by innovation in China, and empirical Suggestions for sustainable economic development strategies, and beneficial references for exploring sustainable and feasible plans for balanced regional development.

基因距离代表了信念、惯例、偏好、风俗等文化特征，体现了群体中的民族异质性，而基因多样性刻画了中国各民族之间交流带来的文化交融。本项目能通过基因多样性分析除了生产要素、人力资本等重要增长因素以外，中华民族根深蒂固的“深层次”因素对中国经济发展的影响机制。基于“基因-文化共演”理论(Gintis, 2011)和“走出非洲”比较发展假说(Ashraf and Galor, 2013)，本研究建立理论模型探讨文化交融如何通过技术创新推动我国经济持续发展。此外，本项目基于《中国人基因遗传图谱》等多套中国各民族的基因频率数据，构建了省级以及地级市级的遗传多样性数据库，与省级、市级创新数据相匹配，实证分析基因多样性对技术创新的影响，从文化融合的视角探讨技术创新推动我国经济持续发展的多种渠道；为我国推动以创新带动经济稳健发展提供理论支持，为持续性经济发展策略提供实证建议，为区域平衡发展提供方案探索。

本项目聚焦于中国经济持续发展的深层次影响机制的探究，以文化价值为出发点，多视角探究中国经济持续发展的“深层次”因素，尝试为我国不同地区均衡增长及共同富裕提供参考建议。本项目研究首先分析文化价值观对储蓄的影响，发现集体主义文化对储蓄行为具有显著积极影响，集体主义文化浸润下的家庭比崇尚个人主义文化的家庭储蓄更多。水稻种植区更易形成集体主义的生产方式，而在其他农业生产方式盛行的区域，社区内各民族之间的遗传多样性更复杂，阻碍了团结，从而减少了储蓄。然后本项目重点讨论银企关系影响企业创新的渠道与机制，实证结果表明银企关系抑制企业创新，而银行业竞争有效地弱化了银企关系对企业创新的抑制作用。完善的市场化环境和法治环境能够很好地缓解银企关系带来的负向作用。国有企业的创新行为受到银企关系的抑制比民营企业更加显著。高科技行业企业的创新更易受到银企关系的抑制。接着本项目较为深入地研究了台风与经济增长之间的非线性关系，结果显示台风冲击与经济增长在短期存在倒U型的关系而在长期则为负相关关系。劳动力和物质资本渠道是台风减缓经济增长的重要渠道。且台风冲击对经济增长产生的持续负面影响会逐渐增强再逐渐减弱。得益于灾前预防救济机制及台风冲击风险引起的储蓄率和人力资本积累增加，台风冲击对经常遭遇台风袭击的城市以及发达城市的经济增长没有表现出明显的长期持续负面效应。随后，本项目分别从金融发展、住房和代际观念联系等角度分析生育意愿变化趋势并寻求提高生育意愿的有效措施。发现金融发展与居民生育意愿存在着显著负向的关系；房价与我国居民的生育意愿呈显著的负相关，但此关系受居民现有居住条件影响。且二孩生育意愿受房价的负向影响更显著。父母生育意愿通过直接观念影响、代际社会经济地位传递、成长时期家庭规模等影响机制对子女生育意愿产生显著的正向影响，且此影响在代际劳务、经济支持与日常联系中得到强化。