“大村庄制”合并新村脆弱性及优化升级研究

Merge village of big Village System is a new type of village cluster, its essence is merging scattered traditional villages into a Big Village and put it under the community management model. The space structure and organization form of the Big Village possess the basic characteristics of urban community, but the villager keep on the identity of farmers. Thus it has the dual characteristics of city and countryside..In 2014, the Central Government chose Ningxia Yongning County to be the test area of the western region. The local government established 8 merged villages which originally covers 4 towns which are consisted of 31 administrative villages and 326 natural villages. 65,700 villagers who belong to 21, 000 households were resettled..The Big Village System has excavated vast cottage land and released a lot of labor, thus accelerating the transfer of rural land and promoting modern agricultural development. Its implementation has put vitality into local economic development. Vulnerability is an inevitable attribute of merged villages at its initial stage. A grey evaluation model is embedded in the framework of vulnerability analysis to conduct the assessment of vulnerability in terms of resources, environment, economy, social system and villagers in merged villages. Besides, the system dynamics model is also embedded in it to study on the temporal and spatial evolution and formation mechanism of system vulnerability. .It is of great theoretical significance to understand the exposure of vulnerability, sensitivity and adaptability of the merged villages when they are disturbed by the external risk. The application of multi-objective intelligent weighted grey target decision model to optimize village development path and build perfect risk control index system to upgrade its ability to prevent risks has important practical significance to the sustainable development of merged villages.

“大村庄制”合并新村是一种新型的村镇集聚形态，其实质是将分散的传统村庄集中并植入社区管理模式，使其空间结构与组织形式具有城市社区的基本特征，村民却保持着农民身份，从而兼具城市与乡村的双重特性。2014年国家在西部地区以宁夏永宁县为试验区建立8个合并新村，安置4个乡镇326个自然村落2.1万户村民。合并新村腾挪出大量村舍用地，释放众多劳动力，促进了农村土地流转与现代农业发展，为地方经济注入了活力。脆弱性是处于初建阶段合并新村的基本属性，在ADV脆弱性分析框架中嵌入灰色评估模型评估合并新村资源、环境、经济、社会系统及村民的脆弱性，嵌入系统动力学模型探究系统脆弱性时空演化规律与形成机理，掌握合并新村在外部风险扰动时脆弱性的暴露、敏感性及适应能力有重要的理论意义；运用多目标智能加权灰靶决策模型优化合并新村发展路径，构建完善风险防控指标体系升级其风险防范能力，促使合并新村可持续发展有重要的现实意义。

“大村庄制”合并新村是一种新型的村镇集聚形态，其实质是将分散的传统村庄集中并植入社区管理模式，使其空间结构与组织形式具有城市社区的基本特征，村民却保持着农民身份，从而兼具了城市与乡村的双重特性。2014年国家在西部地区以宁夏永宁县为试验区建立8个合并新村，安置4个乡镇31个行政村326个自然村落2.1万户6.57万村民。合并新村腾挪出大量村舍用地，释放众多劳动力，促进了农村土地流转与现代农业发展，为地方经济注入了活力。. 脆弱性是处于初建阶段合并新村的必然属性，基于ADV脆弱性评估框架的“交互式”特性，结合合并新村环境、资源、经济、社会子系统的特点及合并新村兼具城市、乡村双重属性的特征，构建适合新村单元的脆弱性分析框架，在分析框架中嵌入结构方程模型进行合并村庄脆弱性形成机理分析，植入灰色白化权函数定权聚类评估模型进行合并村庄脆弱性评估，综合运用上述两个模型识别出合并村庄脆弱性决定因子，构建灰色关联优势分析模型进行永宁县合并村庄发展状态特征变量与相关因素灰色关联优势局分析，有重要的理论价值。. 关于宁夏永宁县合并村庄试验区脆弱性形成机理的研究揭示了脆弱性潜在变量扰动、敏感性、适应力的相互作用关系、作用过程、作用强度，脆弱性评估结果表明对合并村庄整体上扰动效果差，敏感性较强，适应力一般，结合8个合并村庄的脆弱性评估结果发现，对合并村庄的扰动效果好时，其敏感性弱，适应力强，脆弱性就低；扰动效果差时，其敏感性较强或强，适应力一般，合并村庄的脆弱性就高或较高。综合运用上述两个模型最终识别出4个脆弱性决定因子，其中低保水平是脆弱性的扰动决定因子，养老保险、政策兑现是脆弱性的敏感性决定因子，县域人均GDP值是脆弱性的适应力决定因子。课题组还运用灰色关联优势分析模型进行永宁县合并村庄4项发展状态特征变量与18项相关因素灰色关联优势局分析，分析结果为合并村庄可持续发展提供决策参考，有重要的应用价值。