独立审计质量的经济周期效应研究：理论和实证

In the 21st century, the two recent economic crises have led both the practitioners and academic researchers to pay much attention to the question that how does independent audit quality affect business cycle. From the perspective of basic theory, independent audit is an important guarantee of the financial information quality, and then affects the micro decisions of investment and financing, therefore the quality of independent audit may have intrinsic relationship with the formation of business cycle and business fluctuation. But at present, the relevant researches cannot provide adequate and specific theories and evidences for it, because there are six major problems unsolved arising from the restrictions of the financial business cycle theory framework and independent audit theory framework, respectively. According to the six problems, this program puts forward the research framework for the business cycle effect of independent audit quality, and discusses it on three aspects. Through the theoretical analysis and empirical test, the program studies the differences of independent audit quality at the different stages of business cycle, their effects on the business fluctuation and the implication for the economic effects of some policies. This program expands the boundary of traditional audit research, and internalizes the variable that once was external in the financial business cycle theory, promoting the related researches. It is helpful to explain the recent economic crisis, and also offers reference for making audit supervision policies. So, the program has important theoretical significance and practical significance.

进入21世纪以来的经济危机事件，引发实践界和学术界对独立审计质量经济周期效应的极大关注。从基本理论来讲，独立审计作为财务信息质量的重要保证机制，影响微观经济主体的投融资决策，进而可能与经济周期的形成和波动幅度密切相关。但目前有关的金融经济周期和独立审计研究受到各自研究框架的限制，在解释独立审计质量的经济周期效应方面存在六个重要问题。针对这六个问题，本课题提出系统的独立审计经济周期效应研究框架，通过理论分析和实证检验拟展开三方面内容的具体研究，考察独立审计在经济周期不同阶段的差异性，及其通过企业外源融资对经济波动的影响和对经济政策效应的意义。本课题的研究扩展了传统审计研究的边界条件，同时将宏观金融经济周期理论的外生条件内生化，对现有研究做出重要补充和完善。本课题成果预期为近期的经济波动现象提供合理的理论解释，为有关独立审计监管政策的制定提供重要参考，具有突出的理论意义和现实意义。

独立审计质量是审计师专业胜任能力和独立性的联合函数，当微观审计师行为因经济周期而产生同步性变化时，独立审计质量就可能表现出经济周期效应。对此，本项目展开三个具体问题的探讨：（1）经济周期对独立审计质量的影响；（2）独立审计质量经济周期效应的后果；（3）审计监管政策对独立审计经济周期效应的影响。.本项目采用了数理模型构建和实证数据研究的方式，研究结果表明：首先，我国独立审计质量呈现逆经济周期效应。相较于经济下行期，由于经济上升期的审计业务更繁忙、审计师劳动力市场竞争更激烈、周期性行业公司的破产风险和违约风险更低，审计师在经济上升期会减少对审计质量的投入，造成独立审计质量下降。其次，在经济由上升向下行转换的期间，由于往年低劣审计质量的积聚，加上企业因经营压力的显著提高会增加向审计师施压或利诱，故审计丑闻最有可能在该时期集中爆发，扰乱资本市场秩序。再次，审计质量的逆周期效应将加剧经济的波动性。在经济上升期，低劣的审计质量会助长资产泡沫的形成和债务的扩张；一旦外来负向冲击使经济出现下行迹象，审计丑闻的集中爆发将严重打击投资者信心，加速“明斯基”时刻的到来；当经济进入下行期，随着审计师谨慎性的提升，审计质量的提高又使得周期性行业公司的资产负债表更加拮据，加剧其融资难度，延缓经济的复苏步伐。最后，审计监管的事后特征往往导致监管力度在经济下行期强于经济上升期，这可能加大独立审计质量逆经济周期性。.本项目研究从审计的视角讨论了经济周期基本财务数据的质量问题；放松了经典“金融变速器”理论对审计成本随经济周期变动的假设，指出我国审计质量的逆经济周期效应及其通过金融系统形成的变速器效果；同时，为我国相关监管层根据经济周期特征灵活采用各种措施，减弱而非加剧审计质量逆周期效应，提供了科学的参考依据。