扰动下可持续生物燃料供应链系统鲁棒优化与仿真研究

"Non-food" biofuel supply chain is suffering from the requirements of sustainable development and various uncertainties. One new problem about sustainable supply chain robust design will be presented under disruptions and studied by academic and case study methods. Firstly,Several sustainable biofuel supply chain networks will be optimized by considering the inventory structure, feedstocks competition and multi-stage. Then, we will study robust optimization problems of sustainable biofuel supply chain under various disruptions. One multi-objective evolutionary algorithm (MOEA) robust solution based on genetic algorithm and simulate anneal arithmetic will be proposed to solve these models. Furthermore, one system dynamic simulation model will be built in order to analyze the complex and dynamic disruptions,and design the robust and sustainable biofuel supply chain. Based on the above research, several cases study of sustainable biofuel supply chain robust design will be carried out with related to four typical biomss feedstocks in China. Finally, one database of sustainable biofuel supply chain design will be studied including of parameters, disruptions schemes, GHG emission data and robust optimization results. This research will promote the development of sustainable supply chain management and robust optimization theory. The results of this research will speed the commercial process of "second" generation biofuel industry in China and improve the capability of biofuel supply chain 'quick response for emergency and sustainable development. It is very useful for various actors of biofuel supply chain.

围绕 第二代"非粮"生物燃料面临的可持续发展要求及高不确定环境,提炼出扰动下可持续供应链设计新问题，综合理论与实证研究扰动下可持续生物燃料"一体化"供应链鲁棒设计问题,包括：考虑库存结构、原料竞争下的可持续生物燃料多级供应链系统的确定性建模；考虑原料供给、物流、生产和需求等单因素或双因素扰动下的可持续生物燃料多级供应链鲁棒建模；组合应用遗传算法和模拟退火法的多目标进化鲁棒算法研究；多因素复杂扰动下可持续生物燃料供应链系统动力学仿真；以废弃生物质和能源作物为原料的生物燃料供应链实证研究；基于成果构建可持续生物燃料供应链设计数据库。本项目获得的调查、理论、实证和数据库等研究成果将丰富和发展可持续供应链理论、多目标鲁棒优化理论，促进第二代生物燃料产业的商业化进程，提升生物燃料供应链可持续发展和应急管理能力，为广大生物燃料企业提供决策支持。

本课题围绕第二代“非粮”生物燃料面临的可持续发展要求及高不确定环境，对我国生物质燃料供应链进行调研，提出一个全面的系统框架来分析可持续生物燃料供应链的不确定性。对价格不确定和供需不确定条件下的生物燃料供应链进行建模分析，提出多目标（经济、环境、社会目标）的线形模型，设计改进的遗传算法对模型进行求解，以“苏州洁净”和“常州卡特”为例进行实证研究。对生物燃料的库存策略进行研究，建立生物燃料供应链设计的库存策略模型，以秸秆回收为例，对模型进行验证。结合调研的实际，基于生物燃料的特点，建立改进的动态模糊灰色马尔科夫预测模型，对我国生物质燃料的产量进行预测。预测结果表明，该模型能有效地提高预测数据的准确性。从扰动管理者的角度研究生物柴油供应链协调问题。给出了一个包含最优订货量和合同参数的扰动协调策略，运用江苏悦达凯特新能源有限公司的实际数据，对该协调策略进行了验证。结果表明：当市场需求和回收成本同时受到扰动时，该协调策略可以使生物柴油供应链更具有鲁棒性，利润共享契约下的新策略要好于原策略。本课题研究成果在研究目标、内容和载体上已完成了预期计划，成果不仅能有效推进我国生物燃料产业的可持续发展，而且丰富了供应链风险管理理论，并开拓了供应链协调理论的实证领域。