应对气候变化的农村可持续生计策略研究——以中国西南地区为例

The challenges and opportunities induced by climate change become increasingly manifested, especially for the rural households in developing countries which particularly rely on agricultural and natural resource based activities and generally exposed to risks associated with climatic, their adaptive approaches and livelihoods strategies to these changes have received growing attention. In rural China, climate vulnerability and adaptation are closely related to “Three agricultural questions”, which might influence the sustainable development of agriculture and rural economy to some extent. Taking Guizhou, Sichuan and Guangxi as example, this project will do an empirical analysis on the factors influencing adaptation capability by using micro-level data and the relationship between adaptation and vulnerability. By means of understanding the theoretical framework of rural households’ adaptation strategy to climate change, this study will also investigate the constraints of adaptation strategy. Furthermore, by classification of rural households’ livelihood strategy, we aim to find the relationship between livelihood strategy transition and households assets. In connection with the empirical results, our project attempt to provide further understanding of climate change influence, vulnerability and adaptation and help rural households make reasonable adaptation and livelihood strategy which will contribute to the sustainable development of rural rural economy.

随着全球气候变化对自然和人类生存体系引起的严峻挑战不断显现,特别是对于更易受气候变化风险影响的发展中国家农村地区，对于这些变化所作的适应策略调整已经得到国际上越来越多的关注。而在我国，农村地区气候变化脆弱性和适应策略与“三农”问题密切相关，在一定程度上会影响农业和农村经济的可持续发展。本课题将以西南地区两省一区（贵州、四川和广西）作为实证研究区域，利用微观层面数据，分析影响适应措施选择的因素以及不同适应措施与气候变化脆弱性有怎样的对应关系；了解农户气候变化适应决策过程的理论机制，探索制约适应决策实施的限制因素；对农户生计策略转型进行归类，并检验其与气候变化及资产动态变化间的相互关系；最终提供有关农村地区气候变化影响、脆弱性和适应更加深入的理解和认知，有助于农户实施更为合理的适应措施以及生计策略，从而保障农村地区经济的可持续发展。

随着全球气候变化对自然和人类生存体系引起的严峻挑战不断显现,特别是对于更易受气 候变化风险影响的发展中国家农村地区，对于这些变化所作的适应策略调整已经得到国际上越 来越多的关注。而在我国，农村地区气候变化脆弱性和适应策略与“三农”问题密切相关，在 一定程度上会影响农业和农村经济的可持续发展。本课题将以西南地区两省一区（贵州、四川 和广西）作为实证研究区域，利用微观层面数据，分析影响适应措施选择的因素以及不同适应 措施与气候变化脆弱性有怎样的对应关系；了解农户气候变化适应决策过程的理论机制，探索 制约适应决策实施的限制因素；对农户生计策略转型进行归类，并检验其与气候变化及资产动 态变化间的相互关系；最终提供有关农村地区气候变化影响、脆弱性和适应更加深入的理解和 认知，有助于农户实施更为合理的适应措施以及生计策略，从而保障农村地区经济的可持续发 展。