功率持续快速变化下核电厂操纵员人因可靠性分析方法研究

In order to meet the needs of China's power industry supply-side reform, the market economy requires the nuclear power participate the peak regulation of power grid. This puts a higher demand on the reliability of the operator's performance of nuclear power plant (NPP). For the characteristic of NPP's power continuous rapid change caused by the peak regulation of power grid, this project extracts the scientific problem of "the human reliability analysis (HRA) for the NPP operators in the context of operational tasks continuous rapid change". This research will be carried out from the following aspects: (1) identify the cognitive behavioral characteristics and failure mechanism of NPP operators in the context of operational tasks continuous rapid change; (2) investigate the changes of performance shaping factors (PSFs), the relationship between the factors, and the causal relationship between factors and operator's performance error, build a data-driven causal model of operator's performance error; (3) propose the quantitative analysis model of operators reliability by integrating bayesian inference, fuzzy mathematics and system dynamics (SD), and conquer the problem of uncertainty quantification (UQ) in the process of model integration; (4) obtain an example of engineering applications. The success of this project will provide theoretical and technical support for the NPP participate the peak regulation of power grid. The results can be extended to the complex systems with has the similar characteristics, such as nuclear-powered aircraft carrier and nuclear-powered submarine.

为满足我国电力工业供给侧改革需要，核电参与电网调峰已是市场经济所需，而这对核电厂操纵员作业可靠性提出了更高的要求。针对电网调峰导致需要核电厂功率持续快速变化这一运行特征，本项目提炼出“操控任务持续快速变化下操纵员人因可靠性分析”的科学问题，拟从以下几方面给予研究：(1)分析识别操控任务持续快速变化背景下核电厂操纵员认知行为特征与失误机理，探究操纵员认知行为演化机制。(2)研究辨识项目背景下操纵员行为影响因子的变异、因子之间的影响关系以及因子与作业行为失误之间的因果关系，建立数据驱动的操纵员作业行为失误因果模型。(3)综合集成贝叶斯推理、模糊数学、系统动力学建立操纵员可靠性定量分析模型，并解决模型集成过程中不确定性定量问题。(4)获得工程应用之范例。项目研究成功将为核电厂顺利参与调峰提供理论和技术支持，丰富人因可靠性分析方法体系。成果可推广于具有类似任务特点的复杂系统，如核动力航母、核潜艇。

为满足我国电力工业供给侧改革需要，核电参与电网调峰已是市场经济所需，而这对核电厂操纵员作业可靠性提出了更高的要求。针对电网调峰导致需要核电厂功率持续快速变化这一运行特征，本项目提练出“操控任务持续快速变化下操纵员人因可靠性分析”的科学问题，深入探讨了操控任务持续快速变化背景下核电厂操纵员认知行为特征、操纵员作业行为失误因果模型及失误演化机制，建立了一种科学可行的系统操控任务持续快速变化下作业者人因可靠性分析方法。项目成果为核电厂顺利参与调峰提供了人因方面的理论和技术支持，丰富了人因可靠性分析方法体系。成果可广泛应用于具有类似任务特点的复杂系统，如核动力航母、核潜艇、小型核反应堆等。 .项目发表研究论文 35 篇，包括SCI论文8篇， EI且CSCD论文14篇，CSCD论文5篇，国际会议论文（EI）1篇。著作2部。培养博士3 名，硕士12 名。研究成果已在国家核安全局、中国船舶重工集团公司第七〇一研究所、中广核研究院、广东核电合营有限公司、苏州热工研究院有限公司等单位应用。