绿色金融视角下消费信贷的碳排放溢出效应与减排策略研究

Household sector plays an important role in energy conservation and emissions reduction, which is the core content of green development and ecological civilization construction. This project studies the spillover effects of consumer credit on household carbon emissions and the corresponding mitigation strategies, which aims to advance the theory of green consumption credit. (1) It teases out the logical relation of consumer credit and household carbon emissions and builds theory models to reflect the spillover effects of consumer credit on household carbon emissions. (2) It uses the household finance survey data to empirically study the effects of housing, auto and credit card loans on household direct, indirect and embedded carbon emissions by changing the living condition, the travel behaviors and the liquidity constraints. (3) It values the low-carbon consumption behaviors of household using the carbon asset theory and introduces the signal of carbon asset into consumer credit. Further, it designs the mechanism to make consumer credit to achieve green and analyzes the equilibrium conditions and the pricing principle of the green consumer credit. The project achievements will find the theoretical relation of consumer credit and household carbon emissions and demonstrate this relation by an empirical study. It will benefit the application of green credit on consumer credit. Moreover, it will provide a demonstration for reducing household carbon emissions by financial tools and market ways.

节能减排是绿色发展和生态文明建设的核心内容，家庭减排是其中的重要方面。本项目研究消费信贷的碳排放溢出效应与减排策略，旨在构建绿色消费信贷的理论基础，并提供实证支撑。(1)梳理出消费信贷与居民碳排放之间的逻辑关系，构建消费信贷碳排放溢出效应的理论模型；(2)基于家庭金融调查数据，实证研究住房消费贷款、汽车消费贷款、信用卡消费贷款如何改变居民居住条件、交通行为和流动性约束，进而对家庭直接、间接和隐含碳排放产生影响；(3)基于碳资产理论度量居民低碳消费行为的经济价值，设计促使家庭减排的绿色消费信贷机制，分析绿色消费信贷的均衡条件和定价原理。本项目成果将建立消费信贷与居民碳排放之间的理论联系，并通过经验研究论证二者关系，为绿色信贷理念在消费信贷领域的应用提供学术支持，为通过金融手段实现家庭减排提供具体思路，因而具有重要的理论和现实意义。

消费减排、生活减排、居民减排是广泛关注的减排新领域，绿色金融如何在其中发挥作用值得深入探讨，为此，本项目在绿色金融视角下研究消费信贷的碳排放溢出效应与减排策略。本项目完成了消费信贷影响家庭消费模式的研究，完成消费模式影响家庭碳排放的研究，完成消费信贷碳排放溢出效应的理论建模与实证研究，提出评估低碳行为以及低碳转型行为经济价值的碳资产理论和方法，提出引入碳资产信号的绿色消费信贷市场与定价机制。研究发现：消费贷款对家庭消费存在多样化影响，消费模式决定家庭隐含碳排放的水平，消费信贷具有碳排放溢出效应；信用卡消费贷款和短期消费贷款通过各种类型的消费影响家庭碳排放，而房贷对家庭碳排放的影响房贷对家庭碳排放的影响通过家居类、家用设备类以及医疗保健类和交通类消费实现，且仅在高分位上显著；低碳行为以及低碳转型行为能够为节能减排做出贡献，从而创造社会价值，碳资产理论能够用于评估低碳行为的经济价值，低碳行为的碳资产价值受到低碳行为碳排放水平、传统行为碳排放水平或碳排放基准、碳排放权价格以等因素的不同影响；通过引入碳资产信号，可以设计银行、家庭以及碳金融机构激励相容的绿色消费信贷运行机制。使用的主要数据包括消费金融的数据、家庭碳排放核算的数据以及低碳行为碳资产价值度量的数据。本项目对预估消费贷款政策的效果，对消费减排、生活减排、居民减排政策的制定，对认识和评估企业与居民低碳行为的价值，对绿色金融理论在消费金融领域的推广应用，具有理论参考价值。