绿色制造视角下中国OFDI全球价值链嵌入的碳减排效应研究

Advancing manufacturing reducing carbon emissions and green development are major issues for China's response to climate change and realizing the sustainable development of economy and society. As a key factor of carbon emission and green development, technological progress is increasingly affected by the technology spillover of China's FDI and OFDI.With the increasing of the scale and speed of OFDI, the technology spillover bias of OFDI greatly influences the technological progress direction and carbon emission intensity of our country. This project aims to identify and measure progress towards manufacturing technology in China from the aspects of industry in view of technology bias change caused by the technology spillover bias of OFDI. And based on the inlaid degree, division of labor status and upgrade model in global value chain caused by the heterogeneity of OFDI, the theoretical mechanism about effects on carbon emissions is analyzed deeply under the condition of manufacturing technology progress bias, and it is also revealed about the theoretical logical relationship between each other and the inherent law of dynamic evolution. Finally, based on the forecast simulation of the carbon emission reduction effect and the requirement of national environmental policy for the energy conservation and emissions reduction targets, the optimal path to reduce emission, which is win-win development, is explored from the perspective of technological progress bias on rise of manufacturing value chain and decrease of carbon emission.

推进我国制造业碳减排和绿色化发展是我国应对全球气候变化，实现经济社会永续发展必须面对的重大问题。作为碳减排和绿色制造的关键性因素，技术进步日益受到引资和对外投资（OFDI）技术溢出的影响。随着我国制造业对外直接投资（OFDI）的规模不断增大与速度不断提升，OFDI全球价值链嵌入的技术溢出偏向极大地影响着我国技术进步方向与碳排放强度。本项目旨在从行业层面识别和测度我国制造业OFDI嵌入全球价值链的技术溢出对行业技术进步偏向及碳排放的作用机理，深度剖析全球价值链嵌入程度、分工地位与阶段变动条件下OFDI异质性及其技术溢出所引致的制造业技术偏向性变化及碳减排效应，揭示相互间的理论逻辑关系和动态演变的内在规律。在此基础上，基于碳减排效果的预测模拟和国家节能减排目标的环境政策要求，从技术偏向视角探寻实现制造业绿色价值链攀升和碳减排的双赢最优路径，以促进我国经济社会的绿色发展。

碳减排事关绿色发展与生态文明建设，推进制造业低碳转型和价值链中高端攀升是我国实现高质量发展的重大问题。随着我国制造业对外直接投资（OFDI）规模的不断增大，制造业OFDI全球价值链嵌入，正极大地影响着我国的技术进步方向与碳排放强度。本课题基于我国制造业各细分行业碳排放特征及其OFDI全球价值链嵌入程度和分工地位的特点，揭示了我国OFDI全球价值链嵌入对制造业技术进步偏向及碳排放影响的动态演化规律。主要研究发现：①中国OFDI全球价值链嵌入、全球价值链分工体系演变与制造业技术进步偏向之间存在着复杂的关联效应，OFDI全球价值链嵌入通过影响制造业技术进步偏向，进而作用碳排放与碳生产率。而全球价值链的嵌入特征与制造业所处分工地位的碳排放状态，共同决定了行业技术进步的偏向模式和演化方向。②OFDI全球价值链嵌入对我国制造业碳排放的影响具有明显的行业异质性，由此所引致的技术进步偏向对我国制造业的碳生产率呈现出空间异质性。制造业OFDI逆向技术溢出可有效提高绿色创新效率，在动态演变的制度环境下，该逆向技术溢出与区域绿色创新效率之间存在着门槛效应。③OFDI全球价值链嵌入与低碳技术创新，对我国制造业技术进步偏向和能源强度的形成具有重要影响，低碳技术创新的倒逼效应在OFDI全球价值链嵌入的扩散中具有十分重要意义。OFDI全球价值链嵌入除对我国制造业技术进步偏向产生直接影响外，还通过价值链的互动效应间接影响所处不同行业与成长阶段的制造企业技术创新的偏向性。④对制造业绿色转型升级的技术来源、价值链攀升与地区绿色发展之间关系进一步研究，发现制造业空间集聚与全球价值链嵌入的技术进步效应具有密切关系。与此关联，项目还研究了全球价值链嵌入程度和地位演化影响中国制造业技术进步偏向的驱动因素，发现绿色技术创新溢出、全球价值链攀升的一些区域特征。