桥头堡战略目标下大西南区际产业协作的路径、对策与绩效评价研究

Taking the newly acclaimed National Beachhead Strategies as its research guideline, this research project aims at presenting a realistic and executable set of implementation path, policy mechanism and impact evaluation system for an optimized interregional industry cooperation among the five provincial economic zones (especially the four Nationally-Planned Economic Zones) within the Great South-West region of China. Based on a key sets of theories and methodologies of regional and industrial economics,we will first build a 3-level matrix encompassing a group of key indicators which describe the state of interregional industry cooperation and a corresponding econometric and measurement framework for these industry cooperation matrix and indicators. This matrix and its indicators would include the current, projected and policy measurements of interregional and regional industries. We then apply these matrix and framework to the status quo of interregional industry cooperation among the Great South-West region of China. This will describe the current status of structure,organization,distribution and cooperation of the interregional industries, both quantitatively and qualitatively.It forms a baseline for the research of the region. We also apply the same matrix and framework to the National Beachhead Strategies to construct the development targets of interregional industry cooperation among the Great South-West region of China. This forms the goals of the interregional industry cooperation. A dynamic optimization process from our baseline to our targets gives us the implementation path of such industry cooperation goals. The mechanism of industry cooperation matrix will present us key elements of preferred policies and regulations supporting the industry cooperation. Finally, based on such matrix and framework,we will try to build a policy impact evaluation system for such policies and regulations,with a feedback mechanism design to correct or fine-tune these policies and regulations. The overall results package of this research will be the foundation of theories,methodologies,techniques and policies for governments and industries pursuing an effective and reciprocal economic and industry cooperation within the Great South-West region of China.

本项目以桥头堡战略目标为指南，研究西南5省市区（云、贵、川、渝、桂）及其中4个国家规划经济区（成渝、黔中、北部湾、滇中）之间产业协作的实现路径、政策机制与评价体系。从区域经济与产业经济的关键理论和方法出发，我们将构建从产业现状监测指标、产业发展预测指标到产业规制调控指标的3级区际产业协作指标体系及其计量与测算框架。以此为基础完成大西南各个经济区各自产业结构、组织、布局及相互产业协作现状的定量与定性分析，作为刻画区际产业协作的基线。通过将桥头堡战略目标具体细化为各区域产业发展战略目标和区际产业协作的预期指标体系，我们选取大西南区际产业协作的优化路径。最后，我们尝试制定西南区际产业分工协作的政策措施需求和有效政策机制，同时建立大西南区际产业协作绩效评价体系和反馈机制设计。项目成果将是大西南经济区有关政府部门和产业组织之间实施经济及产业协作的重要理论、方法、技术和政策基础。

一、项目背景. 2011年中央提出将云南建设成为我国面向西南桥头堡，2015年中央进一步明确将云南建设成为我国面向南亚东南亚辐射中心。本项目正是以上述发展需求与发展定位为背景，以云南省内部及与西南各省产业优势比较为基础，以探讨如何发挥云南省的桥头堡和辐射中心地位为主要研究目标。..二、主要研究内容. 按照项目申请书的要求，对西南五省市区（滇、川、渝、桂、桂）省内（共计63个地级行政区）及省际之间19类产业、42个产业部门的区位比较优势、产业投入产出关联、省际产业贸易组成进行了系统分析，对西南五省市区的产业政策与产业发展战略进行了文献与实地调研。在此基础上，研究如何从云南省产业发展的角度，充分发挥不同地区比较优势，促进生产要素合理流动，深化区域合作，推进区域良性互动发展，逐步缩小区域发展差距。最终对云南省实现面向桥头堡与辐射中心的定位给出政策、尤其是产业政策的建议。..三、重要结果.项目量化成果满足申请书及计划书的成果要求：以项目负责人为第一、通讯或独撰作者，以本项目资助为第一（个别第二）标注，共计发表全国性期刊论文8篇（其中北大中文核心期刊3篇、一般学术期刊5篇）、提交出版会议论文4篇、独撰学术专著1部、主编出版会议论文集1部，研究成果转化为省级政府研究报3份、提案多份，获得省部级三等奖1项，以项目资金资助承办全国性学术会议1次、参加全国性学术会议10余人次。.相关成果有以下政策建议成果转化：云南省建设桥头堡与辐射中心的产业定位、产业风险和区域产业协作方式等方面政策重点和要点的绩效评价与规制设计。..四、关键数据.（本项目暂不涉及）. .五、科学意义.对区域产业政策分析有所补充：提出了边疆、欠发达、工业化落后地区实施对内合作、对外开放与产业通道建设的取舍、要点与重点；对区际产业分析有所补充：提出基于多重比较分析的区域比较分析方法；提出基于最小生成树方法的区际产业结构相似度的测度方法与理论，及产业可能演化路径的预测；提出空间面板计量中符合经济学含义的空间依赖性描述的空间权重矩阵W的构建与设定等。