中国人口老龄化进程与劳动生产率：检验、预测与政策选择

Productivity is a the core indicator of a country's development level of productive forces . Continued growth in labor productivity is the fundamental to increase the per capita income level. The productivity is directly affected by the population age structure. China is experiencing sustained and profound changes of the population age structure. The impact of continued aging process to Chinese long-term economic growth will gradually become significant. This study intends to introduce advanced foreign theory and empirical methods, using the micro data and macroeconomic statistics data, to study the impact of population aging on productivity through the three levels: individual worker, the enterprise and the country. By predicting the demographic structure，we forecast the capital formation in the aging process, we forecast the future trends of productivity and simulate the impact of future productivity effects and policy feasibility of extending the retirement age and adjusting the family planning policy.Finally we provide suggestion to the development of scientific and rational population policy for China to maintain long-term stable economic growth.

劳动生产率是衡量一个国家生产力发展水平的核心指标，劳动生产率的持续增长是提高人均收入水平的根本。劳动生产率受到人口年龄结构的直接影响。中国正经历着人口年龄结构持续和深刻的变化，持续的老龄化过程对中国长期经济增长的影响将逐渐显著。本课题拟引入国外前沿的理论与实证方法，利用微观调查数据和宏观统计数据，从劳动者个体、企业与国家三个层面实证研究人口老龄化对劳动生产率的影响，并通过预测人口数量和年龄结构的变化路径，进而预测老龄化进程对资本形成的影响，预测未来劳动生产率的发展趋势。最后根据上述预测模型进行政策模拟，模拟延迟退休年龄、调整计划生育政策等对未来劳动生产率发展路径的影响效果和政策可行性，为我国制定科学合理的人口政策，保持经济长期稳定增长提供政策参考。

中国正经历着人口年龄结构持续和深刻的变化，持续的老龄化过程对中国长期经济增长的影响将逐渐显著，人口老龄化程度的加剧，必将对社会经济发展的方方面面带来巨大影响。本课题引入国外前沿的理论与实证方法，利用微观调查数据和宏观统计数据，从劳动者个体、区域与国家三个层面实证研究老龄化进程对经济社会发展的影响效应，试图理清人口老龄化对居民储蓄与消费、长期经济增长、人力资本积累、产业结构升级以及劳动生产率等方面的影响机制。最后根据上述预测模型进行政策模拟，模拟延迟退休年龄、调整计划生育政策等对未来劳动生产率发展路径的影响效果和政策可行性，为我国制定科学合理的人口政策，保持经济长期稳定增长提供政策参考。